🇮🇷 Roughly 1 in 20 ships crossing Hormuz are getting hit… and the oil still pays enough to cover a lost tanker.
Rory Johnston says that in March and April, oil on one side of the strait was worth over $100 a barrel more than on the other, which eventually pulled in smugglers and dark transits.
The margins are thinner now but still cover the worst case:
“If you’re making $20, $30 a barrel on shipping through the strait, you can lose a ship and you can still make money.”
The catch is the world is running out of tankers to lose, so the crisis keeps hopping from crude to diesel to shipping.
@Rory_Johnston
Video
Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🚨🇮🇷 26 ship attacks in two weeks started right after Iran’s top officials flew home from the UN
Rory Johnston, the oil analyst behind Commodity Context, says Hormuz had climbed back to just over 17 million barrels a day in late September.
Flows are now down to between 11 and 14 million, and the strikes have moved out of the Gulf and into the strait itself.
He suspects the timing was no accident:
“So it would make sense for them to wait until they are back safe home to engage in this escalation.”
If Iran can switch the strait on and off around its own travel plans, who’s really running Hormuz?
@Rory_Johnston
Video
— https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2110564081685921882
