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Day: October 14, 2026
🇮🇷 Roughly 1 in 20 ships crossing Hormuz are getting hit… and the oil still pays enough to cover a lost tanker.
Rory Johnston says that in March and April, oil on one side of the strait was worth over $100 a barrel more than on the other, which eventually pulled in smugglers and dark transits.
The margins are thinner now but still cover the worst case:
“If you’re making $20, $30 a barrel on shipping through the strait, you can lose a ship and you can still make money.”
The catch is the world is running out of tankers to lose, so the crisis keeps hopping from crude to diesel to shipping.
@Rory_Johnston
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Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🚨🇮🇷 26 ship attacks in two weeks started right after Iran’s top officials flew home from the UN
Rory Johnston, the oil analyst behind Commodity Context, says Hormuz had climbed back to just over 17 million barrels a day in late September.
Flows are now down to between 11 and 14 million, and the strikes have moved out of the Gulf and into the strait itself.
He suspects the timing was no accident:
“So it would make sense for them to wait until they are back safe home to engage in this escalation.”
If Iran can switch the strait on and off around its own travel plans, who’s really running Hormuz?
@Rory_Johnston
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— https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2110564081685921882
“It’s an exceedingly UNPOPULAR, EXPENSIVE, and ILL-FATED WAR.”
Former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney analyzes Trump’s potential military escalation against Iran and the political consequences ahead of the US midterm elections.
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NEW: Recent waves of Iranian attacks on vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz indicate that Iran retains the ability to effectively target vessels in the strait, which suggests that Iran has either overcome previous operational challenges or is adapting to such constraints through new tactics or capabilities.
Other Key Takeaways:
The Houthis are attempting to domestically produce a variant of the Iranian Kheybar Shekan missile with People’s Republic of China (PRC)-manufactured components.
Houthi development and use of Kheybar Shekan variants with maneuverable re-entry vehicles that can change the missile’s trajectory mid-flight present a challenge to Saudi air defenses as the Houthis continue to fire missiles and drones targeting Saudi critical infrastructure.
Kimberly Guilfoyle’s spectacular fall from grace is turning into a full-blown humiliation. She’s reportedly holed up at the embassy as even her former allies in Greece pretend she never existed.
@Mpolymer tells @michaeldweiss how it all unraveled.
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🚨🇺🇸 Trump just told Montana it’s getting a new “super range” for hypersonic missiles and autonomous weapons
The most private people in America just found out they’re getting the LOUDEST neighbor imaginable:
“Technologies including potential Autonomous weapons, space, and electronic warfare technology, supersonics and hypersonics.”
Montanans moved there for the peace, quiet and elk season… now they’re going to be dodging robot weapons on the way to flyfishing🤣
Writer: Lucas, Daniel x.com/Acyn/status/2110558370…
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