Day: October 20, 2026

🇺🇸 Seized ballot boxes and uncertified winners are midterm scenarios retired federal judges can no longer rule out.

Aaron David Miller says the people he trusts most, retired federal judges and lawyers, can’t dismiss a fight over certifying newly elected Democrats, with red state governors under pressure to go along:

“This country is going to be thrown into a constitutional crisis, which carries the real prospects of dysfunction and violence.”

Two weeks out from November 3, the real test is whether the guardrails hold.

@aarondmiller2
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  Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The midterms may be the only thing holding back a US strike on Iran right now.

Aaron David Miller, who spent decades as a State Department Middle East negotiator, says every diplomatic off ramp is failing, and a strike now would hand voters a hot war days before Election Day.

The talks themselves have hit a wall:

“The gaps on the core issues are unbridgeable.”

With neither side hurting enough to back down, November 4 could be the day the gloves come off.

@aarondmiller2
Video
  —  https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2112405505616286086

El exfiscal de  #Chihuahua, César Jáuregui, fue trasladado al penal del Altiplano acusado por la FGR de traición a la patria por el caso de los agentes de la  #CIA en un operativo antidrogas donde murieron dos oficiales estadounidenses. Pero el que se dice traicionado es él.

I’m just not as into  #CIA as I was last season 🤷🏻‍♀️

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The midterms may be the only thing holding back a US strike on Iran right now.

Aaron David Miller, who spent decades as a State Department Middle East negotiator, says every diplomatic off ramp is failing, and a strike now would hand voters a hot war days before Election Day.

The talks themselves have hit a wall:

“The gaps on the core issues are unbridgeable.”

With neither side hurting enough to back down, November 4 could be the day the gloves come off.

@aarondmiller2
Video
  Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran war is heading toward another escalation, and neither side is ready to stop.

I spoke with Aaron David Miller, a veteran Middle East negotiator, about the growing signs of another confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

His assessment was grim.

He expects another round of strikes, probably after the U.S. midterms. But he doesn’t believe it would end quickly.

Iran would likely retaliate against American bases and Gulf infrastructure, potentially dragging the region into another dangerous cycle.

What struck me was his explanation for why diplomacy keeps failing.

The two sides remain too far apart to reach an agreement, yet neither believes the cost of continuing the conflict is painful enough to justify serious concessions.

Meanwhile, the Houthis are becoming an increasingly powerful problem for Saudi Arabia, with their position near the Bab el-Mandeb giving them enormous leverage over international shipping.

Miller fears Yemen could become another prolonged war with no clear resolution.

The uncomfortable possibility is that nobody can win decisively, but everyone still believes they can afford to keep fighting.

And that’s a particularly dangerous place for the Middle East to be.

@aarondmiller2
Video
  —  https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2112275935445881250

The 28-year-old playboy who inherited the world’s most notorious mercenary force—and is now making a fortune off gold, guns and vodka.  on.wsj.com/4irtNQy

Authorities are now working to stop stolen goods being resold online through platforms such as Vinted, Amazon and eBay, after a weekend of rioting and looting across France  ft.trib.al/2kUx687

In the series of truly remarkable statements by Trump 🇺🇸 this ranks very high. He’s gone “full Putin”.   x.com/atrupar/status/2112263…
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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 The Iran war has been spreading across the map since day one, and its separate fronts could soon bleed into each other.

Trita Parsi says nothing is left to keep these battlefields apart, and the spread doesn’t need anyone to plan it:

“It’s important to understand that this is not necessarily because there is a calculation to go in that direction, but because the situation gets out of control.”

Nobody has to choose a regional war for one to happen, and right now nobody is doing much to stop it.

@tparsi
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  Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇸🇦 🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia got through the Iran war mostly intact… until the Houthis hit Riyadh’s airport.

Trita Parsi says that strike shoved Riyadh into a fight it can’t finish cleanly, and the course it’s on now only makes things worse:

“It’s not only not realistic, it’s dangerous. It’s undermining Saudi Arabia’s own interest and security.”

With the Houthis going nowhere, how long before Riyadh has to pick between a deal it hates and a war it can’t win?

@tparsi
Video
  —  https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2112398591394279576

Its obvious from their respective public statements that Trump 🇺🇸 and Netanyahu 🇮🇱 believe they need each other for a further round in their so far failed war against 🇮🇷.  Wait for November.The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post)US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s elections has sparked backlash from US Democrats, policy analysts, and liberal advocacy groups, while Republican allies praised the move.
jpost.com/american-politics/…—  https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/2112373064168091691