🇧🇷 Brazil votes Sunday with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in runoff polling, and a Bolsonaro win could mean accepting Washington’s red lines without cutting soy exports to China.
The deal is simple: iron ore and soy keep moving. In this cooler new “Cold War,” the restrictions hit chips, AI, digital networks, rare earths, and security ties with China.
Lula rejected the Shield of the Americas.
His government also split its AI spending between Huawei and Nvidia while resisting a U.S.-favored rare-earth deal.
Washington’s ask, if Flávio wins, is the one it already makes of its partners: trusted suppliers on critical networks, a seat in the Shield, and cooperation on the gangs.
Soy and iron ore do not have to stop moving for any of that to happen.
Source: Reuters @FlavioBolsonaro / Writer: Lucas
