Month: October 2026
Levinson also breaks down the story of Christa Pike, the Tennessee inmate who is in critical condition after a pair of botched execution attempts, “Suncor Energy vs. County Commissioners of Boulder County,” a key environmental case that will be considered by the Supreme Court in its next term, and a new DNC lawsuit focused on a last-minute change to how voters overseas request their absentee ballots. October 1, 2026.
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The USS Makin Island, an amphibious assault ship was spotted leaving San Diego on monday, likely headed toward the Middle East. USS Anchorage and USS John P. Murtha also left San Diego the same day.
The 3 ships are carrying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, a force of about 2,200 Marines and sailors.
The deployment could give the US more options for a possible ground operation against Iran, although it does not confirm that an invasion is planned.
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Brian Shapiro of Pushing the Limits confronts a MAGA caller over the Renee Good shooting, video evidence, and Kash Patel’s handling of the investigation—as the Trump supporter contradicts himself and ultimately concedes a full investigation is needed.
ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized 175.54 square kilometers but lost 256.35 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine in September 2026 for a net loss of 80.81 square kilometers – an average pace of -2.69 square kilometers per day. Russian forces also had negative gains in September when accounting for Russian infiltrations into areas over which Russian forces have not gained control, with Russian forces seizing or infiltrating into 143.2 square kilometers, but losing 318.38 square kilometers of territory for a net loss of 175.18 square kilometers.
These September 2026 statistics, however, include Ukrainian liberations of at least 147 square kilometers of territory in the Lyman area after details about Operation Vivaldi began to emerge in September, even though Ukrainian forces conducted the operation over the preceding months. Russia’s rate of seizing territory significantly declined in March 2026 and has remained low – or even negative – since. Russian gains have also remained low since March, even when counting areas into which Russian forces have infiltrated.
A calculation controlling for Ukrainian gains made during Operation Vivaldi over an unspecified number of months before September 2026 shows that Russian forces have lost control of 293.59 square kilometers net across the entire front since March 2026 and have only gained a presence in a total of 174.44 square kilometers when accounting for Russian infiltrations since March.
Ukraine’s effective use of operational security surrounding Operation Vivaldi – and Ukraine’s likely continuation of this practice during future counterattacks – will likely make it hard to determine meaningful month-on-month net assessment about Russian territorial gains and losses.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1, 2026: Russian milbloggers are expressing concerns that Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction will hinder Russian attempts to assault Slovyansk from the east – suggesting that Operation Vivaldi not only disrupted Russia’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillya directions but may also hinder Russian plans to assault the northern Fortress Belt cities frontally.
More Key Takeaways:
A Ukrainian military officer discussed the establishment of a Ukrainian position in the Slovyansk direction that can serve as the basis for future major Ukrainian operations after Operation Vivaldi.
Russian forces lost control over almost 300 square kilometers between March and September 2026 – a period including Ukraine’s successful Operation Vivaldi, which liberated at least 147 square kilometers over several months.
Russian forces likely at best gained no ground in exchange for over 46,000 casualties in September 2026 – the highest monthly Russian loss rate so far in 2026.
Russian forces struck the Southern Bridge in Kyiv City as part of their campaign to destroy the Ukrainian economy and to make life difficult in the Ukrainian capital.
Russian forces may leverage shaped charges on their long-range drones to strike large, reinforced targets like the Southern Bridge, but such efforts would require repeated, precise strikes over a short period of time to cause significant damage.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on October 1 that Ukrainian forces used the new FP-7 tactical ballistic missile for the first time to strike an unspecific target.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Lyman tactical area.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against military assets and oil infrastructure in Russia. Russia launched 107 drones against Ukraine overnight on September 30 to October 1 and 97 drones during the day on October 1. (1/2)— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2105841627713462616
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