Russia notably began its Winter 2026-2027 strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure ahead of Ukraine’s heating season, as Russian President Vladimir Putin likely recently adopted a modified theory of victory that relies on Russia’s long-range strike campaign to force Ukraine to surrender over Winter 2026-2027.
ISW recently assessed that Ukraine’s 2026 battlefield successes may be forcing Putin to reevaluate his original theory of victory and shift his rhetoric (and possibly his strategy) to focus on compelling Ukraine to surrender using Russia’s long-range strike campaign.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Russia conducted a massive combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of September 29 to 30, primarily targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv City and marking the beginning of Russia’s strike campaign aimed at degrading Ukraine’s energy security ahead of Winter 2026-2027 and forcing Ukraine to capitulate.
Russia notably began its Winter 2026-2027 strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure ahead of Ukraine’s heating season, as Russian President Vladimir Putin likely recently adopted a modified theory of victory that relies on Russia’s long-range strike campaign to force Ukraine to surrender over Winter 2026-2027.
Other Key Takeaways:
A likely Russian drone violated Moldovan airspace and crashed near Hirbovat, Anenii Noi, on the morning of September 30.
The Kremlin is signaling its intention to use the seizure of assets belonging to European companies operating in Russia and to hold such companies’ assets hostage in order to coerce European states into reconsidering their sanctions policies against Russia.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sumy City.
Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Zircon or Onyx anti-ship cruise missiles, an unspecified number of Iskander-M or S-400 ballistic missiles, and 188 drones against Ukraine overnight on September 29 to 30, and 285 drones during the day, an unspecified number of ballistic missiles, and several Banderol or Dan-T loitering munitions during the day on September 30.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2105435597326242117
