🇷🇺🇪🇺 Retired Royal Navy Commondore Steve Jermy puts the risk of a NATO-Russia war at roughly 50/50.
His concern: Europe is helping enable long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, while Moscow has openly warned it may respond in kind.
He also thinks Europe is badly exposed if that happens.
“We do not have the capabilities to defend ourselves against hypersonic or ballistic missile attacks.”
Jermy’s fear is that one retaliatory strike on a missile or drone facility in Britain, France or Germany could turn the proxy war into something much more direct.
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Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇮🇷 Retired Royal Navy Commodore Steve Jermy: Iran’s missile threat is being underestimated.
His specifically looks at interception.
He says ballistic missiles are already difficult targets, while hypersonic missiles are far harder to stop.
Then comes the saturation problem.
50 or 100 incoming missiles can overwhelm defenders simply by forcing too many decisions too quickly.
Jermy fought under missile attack in the Falklands.
His conclusion:
The West still has a serious gap in missile defense, and he doesn’t think it gets fixed anytime soon.
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— https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2113348663934108048