Day: October 20, 2026

Our Associate Editor has more details:  telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…

Aaron David Miller says the people he trusts most, retired federal judges and lawyers, can’t dismiss a fight over certifying newly elected Democrats, with red state governors under pressure to go along:

“This country is going to be thrown into a constitutional crisis, which carries the real prospects of dysfunction and violence.”

Two weeks out from November 3, the real test is whether the guardrails hold.

@aarondmiller2
Video
  Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The midterms may be the only thing holding back a US strike on Iran right now.

Aaron David Miller, who spent decades as a State Department Middle East negotiator, says every diplomatic off ramp is failing, and a strike now would hand voters a hot war days before Election Day.

The talks themselves have hit a wall:

“The gaps on the core issues are unbridgeable.”

With neither side hurting enough to back down, November 4 could be the day the gloves come off.

@aarondmiller2
Video
  —  https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2112405505616286086

Aaron David Miller, who spent decades as a State Department Middle East negotiator, says every diplomatic off ramp is failing, and a strike now would hand voters a hot war days before Election Day.

The talks themselves have hit a wall:

“The gaps on the core issues are unbridgeable.”

With neither side hurting enough to back down, November 4 could be the day the gloves come off.

@aarondmiller2
Video
  Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran war is heading toward another escalation, and neither side is ready to stop.

I spoke with Aaron David Miller, a veteran Middle East negotiator, about the growing signs of another confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

His assessment was grim.

He expects another round of strikes, probably after the U.S. midterms. But he doesn’t believe it would end quickly.

Iran would likely retaliate against American bases and Gulf infrastructure, potentially dragging the region into another dangerous cycle.

What struck me was his explanation for why diplomacy keeps failing.

The two sides remain too far apart to reach an agreement, yet neither believes the cost of continuing the conflict is painful enough to justify serious concessions.

Meanwhile, the Houthis are becoming an increasingly powerful problem for Saudi Arabia, with their position near the Bab el-Mandeb giving them enormous leverage over international shipping.

Miller fears Yemen could become another prolonged war with no clear resolution.

The uncomfortable possibility is that nobody can win decisively, but everyone still believes they can afford to keep fighting.

And that’s a particularly dangerous place for the Middle East to be.

@aarondmiller2
Video
  —  https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2112275935445881250