Day: October 17, 2026

♦️ According to reports, intelligence agencies have obtained a Russian document outlining a plan to destroy electricity supplies, heating, water supply, and sewage systems in Ukraine’s major cities.

♦️ According to the document, Russia’s objective is to deteriorate living conditions in these cities to such an extent that remaining there becomes practically impossible for residents.

♦️ The Russian side has calculated in advance how many missiles and drones would be needed to destroy specific critical infrastructure facilities.

♦️ Particular attention is being paid to Kyiv. Under the worst-case scenario, the Ukrainian capital could be left without electricity for up to 20 hours a day.

It is worth recalling that Putin gained the ability to pursue such objectives after U.S. President Donald Trump deliberately cut off the supply of Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine to help Russia, while also restricting Ukraine’s access to intelligence information and satellite internet.
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— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Oct 17, 2026

I’ve been a lone wolf claiming the war is over since Trump made the threats to wipe out Iran’s civilization on April 7th

Days later, a ceasefire was announced. Since then, we’ve seen sporadic fighting, but with 95% fewer strikes than during the war itself.

The war never returned to anything close to the intensity we saw in March.

But things are changing.

The U.S. is conducting a massive military build-up. Israel and Iran are on high alert. And Iran has now struck more ships in the Strait of Hormuz than it did at any other time since the war.

Almost every indicator points to a repeat of February 28 and a full-scale resumption of the war.

Yet I still believe the war is over.

My prediction is that Trump will instead launch a limited, largely symbolic strike to further degrade Iran’s capabilities, declare victory, and move on.

The reason is simple: There is no military solution to the Iran problem.

Iran reportedly has almost as many missile launchers as it did before the war (400 vs. 420). It’s rapidly rebuilding its missile stockpiles, while U.S. regional bases and radar systems have sustained significant damage, and interceptor inventories are critically depleted.

The massive U.S. military build-up is more likely intended to deter a major Iranian retaliation following a limited strike than to prepare for another prolonged war.

Trump wants out of the region.

But Iran has made that extremely difficult by seeking control over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump tried to force Tehran to concede, and failed.

In my view, his remaining choices are to accept Iran’s position and walk away, escalate into another war with no clear military solution, or resort to the unthinkable: nuclear weapons.

And unlike some, I don’t believe Trump is crazy enough to use a nuclear warhead.

So I stand by my assessment: The war is over.

But here’s an important caveat:

I’m significantly less confident in that prediction than I was before.

Iran’s increasingly maximalist demands have changed the equation, and the probability that I’m wrong is now higher than at any point since I made this call.

I could be wrong, but I’m not changing my assessment simply because the overwhelming consensus has moved in the opposite direction.