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About every six months, we recalculate the current cost of the war in Ukraine in terms of manpower. That is, how much Russia pays for people to fight. This, incidentally, is another innovation of this terrible war: its commercialization within its own framework.
And this isn’t just about the much-vaunted contract signing bonuses. According to our calculations, the effective contract price reached 3 million rubles or approximately $35,000. This is the average bonus price across 24 regions with the highest contract payouts.
So, it’s not just bonuses. We’ve already written that the payments for the deceased were clearly calculated based on the life insurance industry’s experience. It’s not that people stop grieving for a deceased relative.
But the payment, which currently stands at 14.2 million rubles or approximately $170,000, blocks any claims against the state in this regard. This means the tragedy isn’t channeled into a sense of injustice directed at the state, even if the deceased was mobilized.
Indeed, if you get into a car bought with coffin money or enter your apartment every morning, it’s hard to blame the regime and Putin for the deaths. In short, this is a whole separate line of social reflection.
However, this comes at a high cost. According to our calculations, “coffin costs” are the single largest expenditure on manpower, accounting for around 40% of all costs. Furthermore, a living SVU officer costs the state approximately 2.7-2.9 million rubles annually. A dead one costs 14.2 million, equivalent to five years of wartime service. This is despite the fact that they were also receiving pay and bonuses beforehand.
And here’s another paradox of Putin’s military machine. Its military logic is of a totalitarian, mobilization-based nature, and is based on the idea that soldiers should not be spared. And its financial logic is based on the idea that relatives should be generously compensated for losses, in order to reduce “socio-political costs.”
But let’s return to the beginning. We’ve recalculated the state’s manpower expenditures once again. Overall, it turns out that the state’s current war costs, in terms of such expenditures, are 3 trillion rubles for six months and 6 trillion rubles per year.
We calculate six-month expenditures because they will change in six months. The annual figure is not the actual expenditures, but a benchmark. But it is very important because it indicates what a huge portion of the actual military budget goes to providing personnel to the front.
It’s unclear whether the contract recruitment is being reduced, but the overall size of the Russian fighting force apparently continued to grow slowly in 2026. At any rate, it didn’t shrink. However, this doesn’t change the fact that “there aren’t enough people.”
But they are in short supply not because their numbers are declining, but because the effectiveness of drone fire is growing and reducing the importance of manpower.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ data on Russian casualties is inflated by approximately 10-15%. This isn’t necessarily a matter of overstatement—it’s possible that many wounded return to the front, but it still means they can’t be classified as irreparable losses.
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