Counter-terrorism analyst Malcolm Nance breaks down how Tehran read American restraint as an invitation to escalate, targeting commercial shipping with drones, anti-ship missiles, and what may be staged mine footage.
“They said the Americans aren’t striking back, but we’re seeing a lot of ship traffic down there. So let’s just start hosing these ships.”
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t a standoff anymore. It’s a laboratory.
@MalcolmNance
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Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has found a way to keep the Strait of Hormuz dangerous, even with the U.S. Navy protecting shipping.
I spoke with former U.S. intelligence officer Malcolm Nance about the renewed attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
And his explanation was fascinating.
According to Nance, the US military had developed a relatively effective shipping corridor along the southern side of the strait, using helicopters, patrol aircraft and naval air defenses to protect vessels moving toward the UAE.
For a while, it appeared to be working.
But Nance believes Iran was watching the traffic increase and waiting for Washington to become less willing to retaliate.
Now, drones and anti-ship missiles are reportedly hitting vessels again, threatening the shipping route that Gulf exporters depend on.
And that creates a serious problem for Trump.
The U.S. can spend enormous resources escorting tankers, intercepting missiles and maintaining patrols. Iran only needs enough successful attacks to make commercial shipping dangerous and expensive.
We also discussed the expanding war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are drawing more regional players into the conflict.
Egyptian military assistance is being discussed, while UAE-backed Yemeni forces are reportedly coordinating more closely with Saudi-backed factions.
The U.S. Navy may be able to get ships through Hormuz. But keeping the route commercially viable while Iran continues attacking it is an entirely different challenge.
And Nance’s assessment suggests Washington hasn’t solved that problem yet.
@MalcolmNance
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— https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2111950954257850840
