Day: October 14, 2026
Quaest has Flavio at 46% and Lula at 44%.
The margin of error is 2 points, so it is still a technical tie. Blank and null votes are at 9%.
This is the first survey after the first round, when Flávio finished ahead.
The candidates who finished behind Lula were mostly on the right.
Their voters have little reason to move to the left and a clear path to Flávio.
The runoff is October 25th, and most voters already say their choice is locked in🔥
Source: Reuters / Writer: Lucas
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Video
— https://x.com/arugulapiquante/status/2108355920577388977
Rory Johnston, the oil analyst behind Commodity Context, says Hormuz had climbed back to just over 17 million barrels a day in late September.
Flows are now down to between 11 and 14 million, and the strikes have moved out of the Gulf and into the strait itself.
He suspects the timing was no accident:
“So it would make sense for them to wait until they are back safe home to engage in this escalation.”
If Iran can switch the strait on and off around its own travel plans, who’s really running Hormuz?
@Rory_Johnston
Video
Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇮🇷🇺🇸 Oil flow through Hormuz has dropped by as much as a third in two weeks as Iran hits ships nearly twice a day
Transits through the strait peaked at just over 17 million barrels a day in late September, and oil analyst Rory Johnston’s tracking has them back down to somewhere between 11 and 14 million after 26 confirmed attacks since September 30.
The strikes moved from the Gulf into the strait itself, the hardest pace of the war, yet traffic is still running near its wartime high because the math still works:
“If you’re making 20, $30 a barrel on shipping through the strait, you can lose a ship and you can still make money.”
The US blockade is biting too, with Iranian output under 2 million barrels a day for the first time since 2020, so both sides are bleeding and both still think they’re winning, which is exactly how wars of attrition run past the point anyone planned for.
@Rory_Johnston
Video
— https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2110486882551312615
Video
— https://x.com/EyeonPalestine/status/2110508977297485995

