MORE: Russian milbloggers recently stated that Ukrainian forces liberated Ozerne, advanced east of Pyskunivka towards Kryva Luka, and advanced north of Rai-Oleksandrivka.
Russian milbloggers also acknowledged that Ukrainian forces drove Russian forces from Pyskunivka and are counterattacking towards Kryva Luka directly from the west and the northwest from across the Siverskyi Donets River. Recent milblogger claims also indicate that Ukrainian forces advanced immediately east of Mykolaivka (just east of Slovyansk).
Recent repeated Russian milblogger claims that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River are notable, as the river is a significant natural obstacle. Kryva Luka is a dominant tactical height situated just south of the Siverskyi Donets River, from which Ukrainian forces could launch further counterattacks using such advantageous terrain. Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed Russian forces from both the right and left banks of the Siverskyi Donets River in this area. Russian forces likely consider Mykolaivka a primary tactical objective as its local tactical heights create more favorable conditions for an offensive against Slovyansk, and Ukrainian efforts to push Russian forces from areas northeast and southeast of Mykolaivka are preventing Russian forces from leveraging its terrain. Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kramatorsk and Slovyansk directions may indicate a broader Ukrainian effort to push Russian forces eastward across a wide area away from the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration toward the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Russian milbloggers recently acknowledged Ukrainian advances east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, possibly after months of battlefield shaping efforts similar to those which Ukrainian forces conducted in the months leading up to Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction.
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian milbloggers are acknowledging that these Ukrainian counterattacks in the Slovyansk and Kramatorsk directions may have cascading effects and implications for Russian efforts to seize the Fortress Belt.
Ukrainian forces have evolved their tactics and operational planning throughout 2026 in ways that have likely supported recent reported Ukrainian successes east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Ongoing Russian efforts to use glide bomb strikes to shape the battlefield in the Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt resulted in mass civilian casualties on October 8.
European officials continue to name Russia as the party responsible for sabotage against European defense industrial enterprises involved in manufacturing and delivering weapons to Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kostyantynivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukrainian forces struck two Russian oil refineries with a combined processing capacity of 31 million tons of oil per year on October 8. Russian forces launched 142 drones against Ukraine overnight.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2108407330354118899
