Day: October 4, 2026
Before the first votes came in, Flávio Bolsonaro was sitting around 60%.
Then the count opened:
Flávio: 51%
Lula: 41%
As that lead held through the early count, Bolsonaro’s odds kept climbing.
They’re now at 86%.
The polls had Lula ahead.
The votes have given the market a rather different opening act.
Writer: Oliver
The system is approaching a powder keg moment.
Jeffrey Snider joins the show for his weekly macro breakdown:
2 years of near-zero job growth, 3 million people falling further behind the trend, and a jobs report last month that was a statistical anomaly masking the real picture.
Jamie Dimon’s “cockroaches” warning on private credit has proven prescient… the fraudulent loans were a symptom of an entire credit cycle building bad behavior since 2008, and it is now starting to crack.
The wealth divide is at its worst since the GILDED AGE, with young people unable to afford cars until their 30s or houses until their 40s, increasingly turning to radical politics because nothing else is being offered.
“People who are disaffected, pissed off and see no future, vote for radical change. It’s at least understandable.”
The stock market is betting entirely on AI while getting increasingly defensive on everything else, and the question nobody is asking is what happens when that bet does not pay off.
This economy is FRAGILE, and the surface level numbers are hiding it…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
#Russia #Putin #Kaliningrad #NATO #BalticSea #Poland #Lithuania #NuclearWarning #DmitryPolyansky #OSCE #RussiaNATOTensions #BalticSecurity #UkraineWar #BreakingNews
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The TSE count for the Federal District has him at 50.9% and Lula at 38.5%, with 46.1% of the ballot boxes in.
Brasília is not the country, but the capital is often the first read on where the night is going.
BRASIL ACIMA DE TUDO!
Source: Superior Electoral Court of Brazil / Writer: Lucas

