Day: October 4, 2026

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🇸🇦🇾🇪 The war in Yemen could start unraveling the entire regional order.

Laith Marouf thinks the importance of Ansar Allah’s advance is being dramatically underestimated.

This isn’t just about who controls Yemen, he says. It could determine what replaces the political order that has governed the Arabian Peninsula for a century.

His argument starts with Saudi Arabia.

Marouf sees the kingdom itself as an artificial construction held together historically by oil wealth, coercion and outside military protection. And he thinks one of those pillars is now disappearing.

“The empire cannot anymore project power through naval force.”

For Marouf, that is the larger significance of what has happened against Iran and Yemen.

If American naval and air power can no longer reliably impose outcomes against regional adversaries, then governments whose security ultimately depended on that power suddenly become much more vulnerable.

Saudi Arabia is his clearest example.

“Definitely Saudi is going to fall apart, especially if they continue committing suicide as they are ordered by the Israelis to do so.”

Marouf thinks Ansar Allah could eventually push across the Saudi border, including into territory he considers historically Yemeni, creating pressures the kingdom may not survive. And he doesn’t think the consequences stop there.

He sees the Horn of Africa, Somaliland, Djibouti, Ethiopia and the Red Sea as part of the same emerging struggle, with geography becoming more important as maritime power weakens.

That leads to his much larger thesis.

Marouf believes the region may be entering a period in which borders, governments and security arrangements created under Western dominance begin breaking down together.

Not because somebody has designed the replacement.

Because the power that kept the old system intact may no longer be strong enough to enforce it.

@WeTheBrandon
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