🇮🇷 Iran thinks another war is coming, and this time the entire region could be pulled in
Prof. Mohammad Marandi’s argument is that the relative calm in the Strait of Hormuz should not be mistaken for Iranian weakness or a return to normal.
Iran is deliberately allowing more traffic through.
He says Tehran does not want to unnecessarily hurt China, Pakistan and other countries that stayed out of the war. But if Washington attacks again, that restraint disappears.
“Iran is fully prepared.”
Marandi says Iran has spent the lull expanding its missile and drone programs and strengthening underground facilities, while allied forces in Iraq are also preparing for another confrontation.
And he sees Yemen as inseparable from that calculation.
If Saudi Arabia launches another major campaign against Ansar Allah, Marandi says Iran could respond by tightening pressure in Hormuz while Saudi Arabia faces attacks from Yemen and potentially Iraq.
That is what makes his broader argument so consequential.
Washington is focused on restoring the old order in Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is increasingly worried about Ansar Allah approaching control of Bab el-Mandeb.
Marandi says Iran intends to concede neither.
“We’re not going to open the Strait of Hormuz.”
And if another U.S. attack targets Iranian infrastructure, he argues Tehran would no longer limit itself to absorbing the blow and responding proportionally.
The Gulf’s energy infrastructure itself becomes part of the battlefield.
“A couple of thousand of extra soldiers or an extra aircraft carrier are not going to change the balance of power.”
Marandi’s message is essentially that the next round would not simply be another U.S.-Iran exchange.
Hormuz, Yemen, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are increasingly becoming connected pressure points in the same confrontation.
Another war with Iran could therefore spread across the region almost immediately.
@s_m_marandi
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