Day: September 27, 2026
Economist Steve Hanke says they may be watching the wrong number.
As the bigger problem is refining.
Russia has lost a major share of its refining capacity, Hanke says, while Middle Eastern capacity has also been hit. The remaining refineries are being pushed hard to compensate.
And refineries cannot run flat-out forever.
Push them beyond normal utilization and maintenance eventually becomes unavoidable. Take more capacity offline, and the squeeze moves directly into diesel, gasoline and heating oil.
That is why Hanke sees little prospect of quick relief.
“You’ve got the maintenance down, and that means diesel goes up, heating oil goes up, and gas.”
Europe then enters winter with unusually low energy storage, while the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted.
Crude getting expensive is one problem.
Not having enough machinery available to turn crude into the fuels the global economy actually runs on is a much uglier one.
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