Iran Update, September 23, 2026: Iran’s deteriorating economy and apparent difficulties exerting control over the Strait of Hormuz may have contributed to Iran’s recent willingness to engage with the United States. Iran’s renewed engagement with the United States does not indicate that the regime has softened its negotiating position or is willing to make meaningful concessions on core demands.
More Key Takeaways:
The Houthis are attempting to deter the United States and other Saudi partners from any external response that would support Saudi Arabia against the Houthis.
ISW-CTP is considering five possible Houthi military courses of action (COAs) that the group could take against the United States or other Saudi partners if these parties increase their military support for Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, including by providing defensive air support or conducting airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. In a most likely COA (MLCOA), the Houthis expand their naval blockade against Saudi vessels to include vessels affiliated with the United States or other Saudi partners.
The Shia Coordination Framework, which includes multiple Iranian-backed Iraqi actors, has reportedly approved some details of an unfinalized Iraqi government plan to disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias by June 2027. The Iraqi militias will almost certainly exploit certain provisions of Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi’s plan to retain their arms.
Iraq’s most prominent militias continue to condition disarmament on demands that the federal government is highly unlikely to meet, which indicates that they have no intention to disarm. (1/2)
