MORE: The Kremlin’s deadlines for its military objectives continue to be divorced from the reality of Russian forces’ battlefield performance.⬇️
Russian forces advanced on average 3.79 square kilometers per day in June 2026 — a rate far below Russian forces’ previous rate of advance in August 2025, when Russian forces advanced at a rate of 16.65 square kilometers per day. Russian forces still need to seize about 5,305 square kilometers to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and are highly unlikely to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the newly set deadline of December 31, 2026. Russian forces have shown no ability to rapidly advance or restore operational maneuver in Donetsk Oblast.
These unrealistic deadlines for advances are contributing to Russian forces on the ground submitting “beautiful reports” up the chain of command, flag-raising tactics, and Russian forces’ increasing use of (AI)-altered footage to claim advances in areas where Russian forces do not maintain positions.
Russian forces continue to expend significant resources and manpower to try to fulfill these unrealistic objectives. Putin has likely developed a false perception of the Russian military’s successes and capabilities given the larger pattern within the Russian military of misrepresenting the battlefield geometry and providing inaccurate assessments.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The Kremlin continues to set unrealistic deadlines for the Russian military to complete the seizure of Donetsk Oblast that do not align with battlefield realities.
Other Key Takeaways:
The Russian domestic population appears to be increasingly interested in the topic of the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in Russia on the night of June 29 to 30. Russian forces launched 154 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on June 30.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2072107369006330154
