Day: June 18, 2026

Iran e-signed the Hormuz MOU June 15. The IRGC launched drone strikes on commercial ships that night, and every night since. US Navy intercepted each one. Formal signing is June 19, Geneva. The deal is already in breach.  #Hormuz  #OSINT

MORE: Iran will likely use renewed economic access under the MoU to reconstitute members of the Axis of Resistance, particularly Hezbollah, during the 60-day negotiation period. Iran has already told Hezbollah that it will increase its funding as soon as possible once the United States unfreezes Iranian assets. Israel badly degraded Hezbollah during the October 7 War. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria made Hezbollah’s resupply more difficult, and Iran’s competing priorities—including rebuilding its own assets without any financial relief after June 2025—made funding the reconstitution of Hezbollah and other Axis members relatively more challenging. Iran did provide Hezbollah with roughly $1 billion USD between the 2024 war and the 2026 war, but relaxing sanctions and providing Iran with greater access to revenue will provide Iran with more money it can choose to provide to Hezbollah. Clause 11 of the MoU, as reported by Bloomberg, states that the United States may unfreeze Iranian assets in response to “progress of negotiations towards a final agreement.” Lebanese and regional sources told Reuters on June 17 that Iran has promised Hezbollah that it will increase the group’s funding ”as soon as possible,” once the United States unfreezes Iranian assets as a part of the MoU. The degree to which Axis of Resistance factions remain contained or weakened after the last nearly three years of war is in large part contingent on how much funding Iran can provide to them.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah have continued to engage one another in southern Lebanon, in spite of the US-Iran MoU.

Hezbollah, Iranian officials, and Iranian media continued to claim on June 17 that the US-Iran agreement requires Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah and ultimately withdraw from southern LebanonInstitute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)MORE: The final MoU is basically unchanged from the version provided to Bloomberg on June 16, except for text changes in clauses one and five that Iran reportedly requested. ⬇️

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News reported on June 15 that Iran had earlier secured important changes to the draft MoU. These changes included the addition of the phrase “guaranteeing sovereignty and respect for the territorial integrity of Lebanon” to the first clause, references to a joint Iranian-Omani maritime services administration in the Strait of Hormuz to the fifth clause, and an addition that the MoU would bar fee collection in the strait for 60 days, also in the fifth clause.

All three of these changes are reflected in the version briefed to US media but not in the earlier version leaked to Bloomberg (changes highlighted below in bold). IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency noted on June 17—before the signing and the briefing to US media—that Bloomberg’s reported text was inaccurate and had “numerous flaws” related to Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz.

Top Iranian officials are using these changes to imply that they have satisfied their key war aims of controlling the Strait of Hormuz and preserving Hezbollah. Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said that Iran would retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and that vessels transiting the waterway should pay service fees for safe navigation of the strait. Iran continues to be the only threat against commercial shipping in the strait. Aref said that the Strait of Hormuz “belongs to Iran” and that its management will remain Iran’s responsibility. Clause 5 indicates that Iran would need to negotiate with the Gulf Arab states to ensure its management of the Strait, however, and it remains unlikely that the Gulf Arab states would acquiesce to Iranian demands without Iranian coercion. The fact that Iran can negotiate the status of an international waterway is nonetheless an erosion of long-established international law and norms enshrined in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2067432249004359905

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