Day: June 13, 2026

MORE: Other issues—like when Iran can access frozen funds and how much it will be able to access—remain issues in negotiations as well.

There also appear to be some disagreements between Iran and the United States over the Iranian nuclear program, but it is unclear what specific disagreements exist.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)MORE: An “open” strait under Iranian management is not a return to the pre-war status quo and would mean that Iran has accomplished a key war aim. ⬇️

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed the strait at length and noted that it is under Iranian and Omani sovereignty and that both countries will collect fees after the MoU. Iran will also manage the strait. Araghchi rejected the term “tolls” but defended Iran charging “service“ fees for passage through the strait, which is effectively an attempt to rebrand Iran’s protection racket as legal administration. Araghchi added that Iran would provide safe passage through the strait for civilian vessels but create separate arrangements for military vessels.

This system of management is at odds with both US policy and long-established maritime legal precedent. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said, for example, that the strait must be open with no fees or Iranian management. A US official told Reuters that the agreement would “open” the strait, but an “open” strait under Iranian management would be very detrimental to US interests, as ISW-CTP has previously argued in  @brian_cartr‘s essay in the post below.

Iran also continues to use force in an attempt to impose the reality that it controls the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on June 12 that US forces intercepted multiple Iranian drones targeting commercial vessels in the strait. Iranian media separately reported explosions near Qeshm and Sirik islands and said the sounds came from warning shots that Iranian forces fired to enforce control over the strait.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2065960314970009712

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jun 14, 2026

AI Drones Reshape Ukraine War
AI Brief: Ukraine War Escalates with AI Drones and Deepening Global Divides
The Russia-Ukraine war enters a new phase with Ukraine deploying AI-controlled drones for targeted strikes, marking a technological shift in modern warfare. Reports of Ukrainian attacks on Russian chemical plants and manpower shortages highlight escalating tensions. Meanwhile, geopolitical divisions persist, with U.S. political rhetoric framing the conflict in broader ideological terms and Russia amplifying disinformation narratives.

Key Stories

Ukraine deploys AI-controlled drones in first lethal strike on Russian forces — Ukraine used AI-powered ‘terminator drones’ to kill Russian soldiers, signaling a new era of autonomous warfare and raising ethical concerns about AI in combat. The move may accelerate global arms races in unmanned systems.
Ukraine strikes Russian chemical plant amid escalating cross-border attacks — Social media reports confirm Ukraine targeted a chemical plant in Russia’s Tula Oblast, expanding the conflict beyond frontline zones. The attack suggests a strategic shift to disrupt Russian industrial capacity and supply chains.

Zelenskiy addresses manpower shortages with military wage hikes and foreign recruitment — Facing critical troop shortages after four years of war, Ukraine will increase military wages and seek foreign fighters. The policy shift underscores the war’s prolonged strain on Ukrainian resources and personnel.

U.S. political divisions frame Ukraine war as ideological battleground — A Democratic official accused Trump of aligning with policies that would cut healthcare and risk war with Iran, reflecting how the Ukraine conflict has become entangled in U.S. domestic politics and partisan narratives.

Russia amplifies disinformation about Western biological experiments in Ukraine — Russian officials and media promoted conspiracy theories alleging Ukraine is a testing ground for Western biological weapons, illustrating how information warfare remains a key tool in the broader conflict.
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Pic.: 
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— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026

FFS–“Knick”?SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers)—  https://x.com/SpiesVespers/status/2065890428113596694

— @StefanDz11 Jun 14, 2026

AI Drones Reshape Ukraine War  gemini.google.com/share/ccc6…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 14, 2026