Day: June 9, 2026

MORE: Recent statements from senior Iranian officials and regime-affiliated media suggest that Iran believes that it is at war—not in a ceasefire—and views military action as a tactic to improve its negotiating position to serve the regime’s strategic objectives.

Iranian officials appear to be calibrating their response to avoid triggering a major US response. Iran has likely designed this new approach based on an assessment that the United States does not want to return to war.

Avoiding a return to large-scale operations is beneficial for Iran because it allows Iran to drag out the economic and political pressure on the United States and Israel. Iran faces its own economic pressure due to war damages and the US Navy blockade, but the Iranian regime only cares about economic damage insofar as it damages the regime’s parochial interests and threatens regime security.

The recent escalation in Lebanon is also emblematic of this Iranian approach. Pressure from Trump on Netanyahu resulted in limited Israeli strikes that were carefully calibrated to avoid war, rather than restore deterrence vis-à-vis Iran. Such reports would increase Iranian confidence that Trump wants to avoid war. Trump’s pressure on Israel increases the political risk of any strike in Beirut, thus limiting Israel’s ability to degrade Hezbollah and threaten a key pillar of Iranian deterrence.

These strikes and Iranian efforts to link a complete ceasefire in Lebanon to a US-Iran ceasefire are part of an Iranian effort to secure a key objective, the survival of Hezbollah, and simultaneously distract the United States from discussions of Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian efforts to control the strait and aim to reduce US leverage before negotiations on such issues.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The Iranian regime is attempting to use calibrated force in an attempt to extract concessions from the United States without triggering a full-scale US response. Iran has likely designed this new approach based on an assessment that the United States does not want to return to war.

Other Key Takeaways:
Iran is using force against US forces near the Strait of Hormuz, likely in an effort to deter US forces from operating in the Strait of Hormuz for any reason. An Iranian drone downed a US Army AH-64 Apache gunship near the coast of Oman on June 8. This use of force is designed to achieve the Iranian war aim of asserting its control over the strait.

US  President Donald Trump emphasized that the United States must respond to the Iranian attack. ISW-CTP is monitoring reports of a “proportional”  US response as of 5:50 PM ET on June 9. ISW-CTP will provide more details on the US response in its June 10 morning thread and evening update.

The  Houthis continue to threaten to restrict commercial shipping in the Bab  el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, but they have not yet conducted attacks to realize these threats.

Hezbollah and Iran appear not to have effectively deterred Israel from striking Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2064507645239885962

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jun 10, 2026

FBI arresta a más de mil miembros de cárteles mexicanos en operativo fronterizo

#fbi  #eeuu  #seguridad  #frontera

— @NXNoticias Jun 10, 2026