Day: October 4, 2026

7 months into the Iran war, Aaron David Miller sees a strange equilibrium emerging.

The conflict is expensive, dangerous and spreading into new arenas. But it still hasn’t become painful enough for either side to make the concessions required to stop it.

“This, to me, is one of the more mystifying elements of this whole conflict.”

Iran is hurting. Oil remains around $100. Diesel has surged. Moving tankers through the Gulf has become dramatically more expensive.

Yet Miller sees no real urgency.

“There’s not enough pain on the Iranians or the Americans or the Gulf.”

That helps explain why diplomacy keeps going nowhere.

He considered Iran’s recent proposal essentially dead on arrival, and doesn’t believe Tehran intends to restore Hormuz to its pre-war status even if negotiations resume.

At the same time, Miller doesn’t expect the conflict to explode into the enormous regional war many have feared. That is precisely the problem.

The current level of violence may be sustainable enough to continue.

The U.S. and Iran trade episodic blows. Oil remains below truly catastrophic levels. The global economy keeps functioning. Other regional powers largely keep their heads down.

Nobody wins. But nobody is forced to stop either.

“It could go on because I don’t see what stops it.”

Miller thinks we could reach January 2027 with essentially the same unresolved war still grinding away.

Not because escalation is inevitable. Because stalemate may be sustainable.

@aarondmiller2
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