Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just explained why Iran has allowed any oil to move at all.
“If I kidnaped someone and I want to prove to the person that I’ve kidnaped that they’re still alive, right, then I send proof of life.”
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Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Reported explosions in the Strait of Hormuz and a warning from Iran’s strait authority that charterers forcing ships through unauthorized routes will face restrictions, hours after Trump REJECTED the seven-day offer
The reported reason for the rejection was confidence that the oil was still moving, at about 12 million barrels a day, by analysts’ count.
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar spent the segment on where that oil actually goes. It isn’t sneaking past anyone.
It runs down an alternate lane hugging the Omani coast, a bypass that can’t carry supertanker volume, kept open by two carrier groups and roughly 75,000 troops with no American warship inside the Gulf itself.
His analogy is overspending: first the savings, then the high-interest card, then a second card to pay the first, each step feeling like relief.
Iran needs only a little more pressure to close that lane, and assets moving along the Hormozgan coast are how that would start.
The gap that killed the April deal, Israel out of Lebanon and Gaza, hasn’t moved an inch either.
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— https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2104009771485450659
