Day: September 26, 2026
West Point reads Vivaldi as an overture — not the finale. Ukraine found movement in a war that’s been locked for two years, but not enough movement to break the entire front.
Robert G. Rose at the Modern War Institute writes that around Lyman, Ukraine halted and pushed back Russian forces that had spent 20 months grinding toward the transport hub. The 3rd Army Corps collapsed the forward line, encircled parts of two divisions, and retook up to 250 km².
But the decisive factor wasn’t a classic assault. It was drone dominance. Two unmanned brigades — and a Russian elite unit forced off the axis
Rose says two Ukrainian unmanned brigades struck:
river crossings
depots
rear‑area troops
Russia’s elite drone unit Rubikon was degraded enough to be pushed off the axis. When the air picture flips — when drones stop being Russian — the whole rhythm collapses.
But: no operational breakthrough
Russia managed to build a new defensive line behind the Zherebets River. That’s the dull sentence in the analysis. It means Ukraine found movement, but not penetration.
Recipe or season?
This looks like a recipe:
Take the air
Disrupt the rear
Force redeployment
Advance the line
But it also looks like a season: Russia rebuilds. Ukraine must repeat. Drone superiority isn’t a one‑time key — it’s a tempo that must be sustained.
mwi.westpoint.edu/an-overtur…
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