Day: July 25, 2026

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Israeli military observer David Sharp has admitted where Ukrainian ballistic missiles could hit Russian territory. However, in his opinion, it is much more important when they will appear.

He stated this in an exclusive interview with Obozrevatel. In his opinion, a large number of such missiles are needed. “Abstract ballistics, which, unfortunately, does not exist, cannot fly anywhere. Suppose there is a small number of missiles, and a very small number is also produced. Suppose they are quite accurate and can reach Moscow. But when there are very few of them, a dilemma arises. What can they be used for? They can be demonstratively used against Moscow, against some targets in Moscow, like how Russia is shelling Kyiv. But if there are really few of them, and the enemy, most likely, understands this perfectly well, then there will most likely be no effect of intimidation here. Intimidation can only be done with a constant and large volume,” he said.

According to the expert, this may be a certain demonstration regarding the near or medium term.

“Accordingly, the question arises whether it is advisable to act in this way and whether it is not better to spend such a missile on some specific, important target. To hell with Moscow, but, for example, to disable some factory. This is a difficult dilemma, and it is quite likely that the choice will have to be made in favor of an important military-industrial complex facility. And when there are really a lot of missiles, then you can hit both a military-industrial complex facility somewhere in the Tula region and Moscow – there will be enough for everything,” Sharp said.

According to him, this can contribute to both intimidation and regular exposure.

“For example, you show Russia that you can disable the energy sector in a number of regions. Accordingly, the Russian authorities will ask themselves: is it worth it for us to disable the energy sector in Ukraine if they also turn off our electricity? You won’t do this with a few missiles. A few missiles are just demonstrative actions, symbolic or targeted destruction of something,” he said, adding that for this to happen, at least some kind of semi-mass production must be deployed.

Sharp noted that when a ballistic missile is first tested, it means it will take years to reach operational status. He also added that it is important to understand that there are political constraints. “Some allies may ask Ukraine not to touch Moscow. They may even threaten to withhold aid. When such decisions are made, new aspects may arise, but the main thing is to have the tool itself. And the fact that it is still only being tested, and it is unclear at what stage, does not indicate the presence of the tool,” the expert says. Recall, according to the American Institute for the Study of War, Russia this month attacked Ukraine with more ballistic missiles than it is capable of producing in a month. Also, since the beginning of July, the aggressor country has already used up to two-thirds of the planned annual production of Zircon anti-ship missiles.

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