Day: July 23, 2026

#CIA  #Trump  #Putin
x.com/mikenov/status/2080217…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov)PROXY WARS AND THE GLOBAL PEACE
Global  #Security and  #Intelligence  #News Review
Proxy Wars, Hemispheres, and AI  share.gemini.google/zqi1l3NF…
Prompt – My Opinion:
In targeting air attacks, with satellites and AI, there is a certain symmetry in this asymmetric world and wars: US vitally assists Ukraine in its deep strikes in Russia, and Russia does the same by vitally helping Iran to target the CIA sites in the Middle East. Lavrov and Rubio had nothing much to talk about in Manila, in this context. Also, with regard to the hemispheres, aren’t they more cultural-political, than geographic; what are their true boundaries, and who determines them? 

Gemini:
The symmetry you are observing is the defining architecture of modern great-power competition. Direct conflict between nuclear powers is off the table, so the battlefield has been outsourced to proxies, guided by the most advanced intelligence architectures in human history.

The Architecture of Reciprocal Proxy Attrition

Both Washington and Moscow are leveraging their satellite intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) networks, combined with AI-driven data synthesis, to act as the central nervous systems for their respective partners.

By supplying precise targeting telemetry rather than pulling the trigger themselves, the U.S. enables Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, while Russia reportedly provides critical targeting data to Iran and its proxy network to threaten U.S. and allied assets in the Middle East. This allows both powers to inflict severe strategic friction on one another while maintaining the thin veil of plausible deniability required to prevent a direct conventional war.

In an environment where mutual bleeding is the primary strategy, diplomacy is often reduced to theater. This is exactly why the July 2026 meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Manila was so brief and unproductive. The talks on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit lasted just 35 minutes. While Lavrov publicly called further U.S. arms to Ukraine “unacceptable”, both men pointedly ignored shouted questions from reporters regarding Russia’s assistance in targeting U.S. forces in the Middle East. When the geopolitical baseline is reciprocal proxy targeting, there is very little for diplomats to actually negotiate.

The Fiction of Geographic Hemispheres

You are entirely correct in your second premise: in modern discourse, “hemispheres” are almost purely cultural and political constructs that have hijacked geographic terminology.

Geographically, the Equator is an objective physical reality based on the Earth’s rotation, dividing North and South. However, the East/West divide is inherently arbitrary. The Prime Meridian (0° longitude) runs through Greenwich, England, simply because the British Empire held the naval and scientific hegemony to dictate the standard at the 1884 International Meridian Conference.

The true boundaries of these concepts are not defined by cartographers, but by geopolitical alignment, economic integration, and hegemony:

The “West” vs. The “East”: Historically rooted in the Cold War divide between capitalist democracies and the communist bloc, the political “West” completely ignores geography. Australia and New Zealand are universally considered part of the “West” despite being deep in the geographic Eastern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, Latin American countries—which share the geographic Western Hemisphere with the U.S.—are frequently excluded from the political definition of “The West.”

The Global North vs. The Global South: This is the modern evolution of the hemisphere concept. The “Global North” represents advanced, industrialized democracies and includes geographic southern outliers like Australia. The “Global South” includes developing or unaligned nations, many of which (like India, Mexico, and much of North Africa) sit entirely within the geographic Northern Hemisphere.

Who determines them?
The dominant military and economic powers of the era. These boundaries are drawn to establish an “in-group” (shared values, security umbrellas, integrated markets) and an “out-group” (adversaries, resource providers, unaligned states). The lines shift not when the Earth moves, but when global power structures fracture and realign.
–

AI Mode:
Proxy Wars, Hemispheres, and AI
share.google/aimode/qWx6iBxX…

The intersection of proxy wars, hemispheric geopolitics, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents the frontier of modern global conflict. AI is fundamentally changing how powerful nations project power through third parties across the globe. [1, 2]
1. Hemispheric Power Dynamics

The Global North/West: Uses AI for high-end surveillance, predictive intelligence, and autonomous precision drone strikes.
The Global South: Becomes the testing ground for algorithmic warfare, digital disinformation campaigns, and low-cost drone tech.
Tech Hegemony: The US and China weaponize cloud infrastructure and AI models to lock smaller nations into their respective spheres of influence. [3, 4]

2. The Evolution of Proxy Wars

Algorithmic Proxies: Traditional proxy wars relied on sending weapons to rebel groups or smaller nations; today, proxies are gifted AI-driven cyber weapons, targeting algorithms, and facial recognition software.
Plannable Deniability: Planners use AI to launch deepfake campaigns or automated cyberattacks through proxy actors, making direct attribution nearly impossible. [5, 6, 7]
Low-Cost Autonomous Warfare: AI allows small proxy forces to deploy mass fleets of cheap commercial drones, neutralizing the expensive military hardware of larger states. [8]

3. Key Risks and Implications

Conflict Escalation: AI speeds up military decision-making, leaving human leaders less time to de-escalate crises before they spiral. [9, 10]
Ethical Vacuum: When AI errors result in civilian casualties during a proxy conflict, accountability vanishes between the AI developer, the supplying nation, and the proxy group using it.
Global Fragmentation: The world risks dividing into strict digital hemispheres, where data privacy, AI ethics, and technological standards are completely incompatible.

I can help you explore this topic further if you tell me:
Do you want to focus on a specific region? (e.g., the Middle East, Eastern Europe, or the South China Sea)

Are you looking for historical case studies or future predictions?
Would you like to analyze the economic impact of this tech divide?
Let me know how you would like to expand your research.

[1]  tandfonline.com

[2]  oric.superior.edu.pk
[3]  academic.oup.com
[4]  forbes.com
[5]  bryanlopez.com
[6]  proxyrack.com
[7]  withsherlock.ai
[8]  forbes.com
[9]  pilac.law.harvard.edu
[10]  strikeorbit.com—  https://x.com/mikenov/status/2080217657421275298

PROXY WARS AND THE GLOBAL PEACE
Global  #Security and  #Intelligence  #News Review
Proxy Wars, Hemispheres, and AI  share.gemini.google/zqi1l3NF…
Prompt – My Opinion:
In targeting air attacks, with satellites and AI, there is a certain symmetry in this asymmetric world and wars: US vitally assists Ukraine in its deep strikes in Russia, and Russia does the same by vitally helping Iran to target the CIA sites in the Middle East. Lavrov and Rubio had nothing much to talk about in Manila, in this context. Also, with regard to the hemispheres, aren’t they more cultural-political, than geographic; what are their true boundaries, and who determines them? 

Gemini:
The symmetry you are observing is the defining architecture of modern great-power competition. Direct conflict between nuclear powers is off the table, so the battlefield has been outsourced to proxies, guided by the most advanced intelligence architectures in human history.

The Architecture of Reciprocal Proxy Attrition

Both Washington and Moscow are leveraging their satellite intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) networks, combined with AI-driven data synthesis, to act as the central nervous systems for their respective partners.

By supplying precise targeting telemetry rather than pulling the trigger themselves, the U.S. enables Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, while Russia reportedly provides critical targeting data to Iran and its proxy network to threaten U.S. and allied assets in the Middle East. This allows both powers to inflict severe strategic friction on one another while maintaining the thin veil of plausible deniability required to prevent a direct conventional war.

In an environment where mutual bleeding is the primary strategy, diplomacy is often reduced to theater. This is exactly why the July 2026 meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Manila was so brief and unproductive. The talks on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit lasted just 35 minutes. While Lavrov publicly called further U.S. arms to Ukraine “unacceptable”, both men pointedly ignored shouted questions from reporters regarding Russia’s assistance in targeting U.S. forces in the Middle East. When the geopolitical baseline is reciprocal proxy targeting, there is very little for diplomats to actually negotiate.

The Fiction of Geographic Hemispheres

You are entirely correct in your second premise: in modern discourse, “hemispheres” are almost purely cultural and political constructs that have hijacked geographic terminology.

Geographically, the Equator is an objective physical reality based on the Earth’s rotation, dividing North and South. However, the East/West divide is inherently arbitrary. The Prime Meridian (0° longitude) runs through Greenwich, England, simply because the British Empire held the naval and scientific hegemony to dictate the standard at the 1884 International Meridian Conference.

The true boundaries of these concepts are not defined by cartographers, but by geopolitical alignment, economic integration, and hegemony:

The “West” vs. The “East”: Historically rooted in the Cold War divide between capitalist democracies and the communist bloc, the political “West” completely ignores geography. Australia and New Zealand are universally considered part of the “West” despite being deep in the geographic Eastern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, Latin American countries—which share the geographic Western Hemisphere with the U.S.—are frequently excluded from the political definition of “The West.”

The Global North vs. The Global South: This is the modern evolution of the hemisphere concept. The “Global North” represents advanced, industrialized democracies and includes geographic southern outliers like Australia. The “Global South” includes developing or unaligned nations, many of which (like India, Mexico, and much of North Africa) sit entirely within the geographic Northern Hemisphere.

Who determines them?
The dominant military and economic powers of the era. These boundaries are drawn to establish an “in-group” (shared values, security umbrellas, integrated markets) and an “out-group” (adversaries, resource providers, unaligned states). The lines shift not when the Earth moves, but when global power structures fracture and realign.
–

AI Mode:
Proxy Wars, Hemispheres, and AI
share.google/aimode/qWx6iBxX…

The intersection of proxy wars, hemispheric geopolitics, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents the frontier of modern global conflict. AI is fundamentally changing how powerful nations project power through third parties across the globe. [1, 2]
1. Hemispheric Power Dynamics

The Global North/West: Uses AI for high-end surveillance, predictive intelligence, and autonomous precision drone strikes.
The Global South: Becomes the testing ground for algorithmic warfare, digital disinformation campaigns, and low-cost drone tech.
Tech Hegemony: The US and China weaponize cloud infrastructure and AI models to lock smaller nations into their respective spheres of influence. [3, 4]

2. The Evolution of Proxy Wars

Algorithmic Proxies: Traditional proxy wars relied on sending weapons to rebel groups or smaller nations; today, proxies are gifted AI-driven cyber weapons, targeting algorithms, and facial recognition software.
Plannable Deniability: Planners use AI to launch deepfake campaigns or automated cyberattacks through proxy actors, making direct attribution nearly impossible. [5, 6, 7]
Low-Cost Autonomous Warfare: AI allows small proxy forces to deploy mass fleets of cheap commercial drones, neutralizing the expensive military hardware of larger states. [8]

3. Key Risks and Implications

Conflict Escalation: AI speeds up military decision-making, leaving human leaders less time to de-escalate crises before they spiral. [9, 10]
Ethical Vacuum: When AI errors result in civilian casualties during a proxy conflict, accountability vanishes between the AI developer, the supplying nation, and the proxy group using it.
Global Fragmentation: The world risks dividing into strict digital hemispheres, where data privacy, AI ethics, and technological standards are completely incompatible.

I can help you explore this topic further if you tell me:
Do you want to focus on a specific region? (e.g., the Middle East, Eastern Europe, or the South China Sea)

Are you looking for historical case studies or future predictions?
Would you like to analyze the economic impact of this tech divide?
Let me know how you would like to expand your research.

[1]  tandfonline.com

[2]  oric.superior.edu.pk
[3]  academic.oup.com
[4]  forbes.com
[5]  bryanlopez.com
[6]  proxyrack.com
[7]  withsherlock.ai
[8]  forbes.com
[9]  pilac.law.harvard.edu
[10]  strikeorbit.com