Russian authorities will likely seek to detain large numbers of migrants for any disobedience or criticism to coerce them into signing military service contracts amid Russia’s declining recruitment rate.
Polish authorities continue warning of a possible Russian provocation against NATO’s eastern flank.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is conducting a “Phase Zero” campaign that aims to set informational and psychological conditions for potential future provocations against NATO and that Russian false flag provocations, along with drone incursions, sabotage, electronic warfare (EW) interference, and overflights, are part of this campaign.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi and appointed the Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Commander Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as his replacement late on July 21.
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian authorities continue costly efforts to mitigate the loss of Russian oil refining capacity due to Ukrainian long-range strikes by subsidizing diesel imports.
The Russian government continues exerting legal pressure on Russian migrants likely to coerce migrants into military service under threat of deportation.
Polish authorities continue warning of a possible Russian provocation against NATO’s eastern flank.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian manufacturing infrastructure and military assets overnight on July 20 and 21. Russia launched 58 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction and in northern Kharkiv Oblast.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2079727839058772024
