Day: July 2, 2024

As we struggle with higher interest rates and unemployment, this is the price we have to pay to restore the ‘credibility’ of the RBA

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The release of recent data suggesting that inflation appears to be stuck at 4%, above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2% to 3%, has raised plenty of concern among economic and political commentators. These commentators might be surprised to learn that many, perhaps most, macroeconomists who have looked at the question have concluded that a 4% inflation rate would be the ideal target, at least providing that wages and other incomes kept pace.

The underlying reasoning is simple. Interest rates are the main tool of monetary policy. In a deep recession such as that following the global financial crisis, or in an emergency such as that created by the Covid-19 pandemic, it is desirable that the interest rate should be well below the rate of inflation. That is, the real interest rate, adjusted for inflation, should be negative.

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John Quiggin is a professor at the University of Queensland’s school of economics

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When on Monday the Supreme Court decided that a president has immunity from prosecution when executing his or her official duties, it’s possible they just guaranteed that Donald Trump is going to prison. Nine days from now (as I write this) judge Juan Merchan will sentence convicted felon Donald Trump on 34 felony counts. That is judge Merchan’s moment in history, and he has all the information he needs to execute that moment wisely.

The most crucial element to first consider is this. Whatever you might say about the crimes Trump has been convicted of thus far, they cannot be considered part of his official duties as president of the United States. He wasn’t president at the time he committed those crimes, and he never had been up to that point. Therefore, the SCOTUS immunity does NOT apply. The so-called Stormy Daniels election interference case is the only one of the four cases for which this is unequivocally true.

Judge Merchan understands this. He therefore understands that the case cannot be appealed on that account. There simply is no presidential immunity here to be argued.

Merchan is an intelligent, educated, reasonable man. In contemplating Donald Trump’s sentence, he is free to consider a broad range of mitigating circumstances. For example, he is free to consider that Trump has shown absolutely no contrition or remorse for his crimes. He is free to consider the contempt Trump has publicly displayed for his sentence, Trump’s repeated insistence that he “did nothing wrong,” and instances of stochastic terror Trump has visited on witnesses and officers of the court. A reasonable person would conclude from this — and Merchan is a reasonable person — that Trump does not regard the crimes he committed as unlawful, that he intends to go right on causing trouble for the court and the witnesses, and he would therefore have no compunction about committing his crimes again.

Contrary to popular opinion, Merchan is also free to consider that Trump has three other very serious criminal cases pending. So while it’s true that Trump has no prior convictions, that might be simply an artefact of his current circumstances. The election interference case could just as easily have been tried last, under which circumstance Trump would have (potentially) three prior convictions.

Above all, Merchan is free to consider — indeed he is duty-bound to consider — what Defendant J Trump will do with his freedom. His potential to harm society has always been considerable. Now, thanks to the Supreme Court’s latest ruling, that harm could be unlimited.

Merchan must know that Trump could win back the presidency in November. Merchan further knows that Trump clearly has an appetite for crime and unlimited contempt for the law. With the presidency’s official duties now immune from prosecution, Trump’s potential for lawlessness could become boundless, inexhaustible.

Merchan has been handed that rare opportunity. With the stroke of a pen he could save the world from a second Hitler. I think he will. I think he will now sentence Trump to a long prison term, and it is within his discretion to insist that Trump start serving that term immediately. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe. Donate to Palmer Report

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