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The European Union aims to strengthen its presence in the Black Sea, a region of renewed geostrategic value, by setting up a security hub that would protect critical infrastructure, remove naval mines, combat hybrid threats, mitigate environmental risks and ensure freedom of navigation for commerce.
The hub is primarily designed to counter Russia’s expansionism in Eastern Europe and could eventually be employed to monitor and sustain a peace settlement in Ukraine.
“The Black Sea region is of great strategic importance to the European Union because of the connection (between) Central Asia and Europe. It is important because of security, trade and energy,” High Representative Kaja Kallas said on Wednesday as she unveiled a new strategy to bolster ties with the Black Sea.
“But the region’s potential is marred by Russia’s war. Recurring airspace violations and attacks on ports and shipping lanes highlight this reality.”
Notably, the strategy, which also touches upon transport, energy, digital networks, trade, climate change and the blue economy, lacks a specific financial envelope to realise its ambitions and instead builds upon other programmes under the EU budget, such as SAFE, the new €150-billion initiative of low-interest loans to boost defence spending.
The funding, location and operational model of the security hub will depend on the negotiations of the bloc’s next seven-year budget, Kallas said.
The European Commission is expected to present the much-anticipated proposal for the 2028-2032 budget before the end of the year. The draft will then kick-start a prolonged, complex and possibly explosive debate among governments.
Brussels hopes the magnified importance of the Black Sea, which encompasses 174 million people, two member states (Romania and Bulgaria) and four candidates to join the bloc (Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia), will convince capitals to bet on the strategy and provide the necessary funds. The plan may also benefit from the fiscal effort that most member states will have to make to meet NATO’s likely future 5% of GDP target.
Chasing the ‘shadow fleet’
One of the main threats that inspired the strategy is the “shadow fleet”, the old-age tankers that Russia has deployed to circumvent the G7 price cap on seaborne oil.
The fleet, present in both the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, uses obscure insurance and ownership to escape the surveillance of Western allies and engages in illicit practices at sea, such as transmitting false data and becoming invisible to satellite systems. Its condition is so poor that it has stoked fears of an environmental disaster.
In recent months, “shadow fleet” vessels have been accused of engaging in sabotage and vandalism against the EU’s critical infrastructure, fuelling calls for hard-hitting sanctions. Estonia has warned that Moscow is ready to provide military assistance to protect the decrepit tankers from inspections and seizures.
On Wednesday, Kallas admitted the “shadow fleet” was becoming a “bigger problem” for the EU. “We see our adversaries finding new ways to use it,” she said.
Asked if Brussels should set up an EU-wide military mission to keep a closer eye on the “shadow fleet”, Kallas appeared open to the idea but acknowledged the limitations imposed by international law, which provides for the right of innocent passage that compels all states to guarantee unimpeded, non-discriminatory transit.
The right entails a heavy burden of proof to justify the intervention of a foreign vessel.
“The discussions are ongoing,” Kallas said. “We need to work also with our intentional partners to address these concerns (such as) when you can stop the ships. They need much broader attention than only the European Union.”
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