ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized or infiltrated 30.42 square kilometers in June 2026 and advanced or infiltrated at an average pace of 1.01 square kilometers per day. Russian forces comparatively seized 481.25 square kilometers in June 2025, advancing at an average pace of 16.04 square kilometers per day. Russia’s gains have been largely gradual and creeping for over a year, and even Russia’s faster average rate of advance in 2025 was at a foot pace.
Russia’s rate of advance has been steadily decreasing since November 2025, and Russian forces have thus far been unable to roll back the successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kupyansk and Oleksandrivka directions from late 2025 and spring 2026. Russian forces’ main territorial gains have been in Russia’s main effort area near Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces have achieved slow tactical gains at high costs in the city’s urban environs.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operationally significant gains thus far, and Russian forces’ rate of advance in June 2026 is a fraction of the rate of advance that Russian forces achieved in June 2025.
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian forces have also experienced heavy casualties and equipment losses to make these relatively small gains.
Ukraine continued to intensify its intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns in June 2026, which are having cascading effects on Russian logistics and battlefield operations as well as causing gasoline shortages and economic frictions across Russia and occupied Ukraine.
Russian authorities announced that Russia will temporarily close seven railway border crossings with Finland, Latvia, and Estonia starting July 1 for unspecified reasons.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil and gas infrastructure and military assets on the night of June 30 to July 1. Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile, one Kh-59 guided missile, and 151 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. (1/2)— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2072509873430856101
