The strikes have also not yet changed Iran’s willingness to use force. The IRGC Navy struck the Cyprus-flagged GFS Galaxy on July 11 with an anti-ship cruise missile and claimed that it struck a second unspecified vessel on July 12, demonstrating that the IRGC Navy remains capable of conducting individual attacks. Even individual attacks can prevent the passage of vessels because the ability to transit the strait is contingent entirely upon the risk calculations of ship captains, owners, and the shipping industry, which are all risk-averse.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) struck approximately 140 Iranian military targets, including missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, air and surface-surveillance radars, and surface-to-air missile launchers on July 11 in response to IRGC attacks against commercial vessels. CENTCOM stated that it struck more than 300 targets over three nights to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping. A US official told Axios on July 12 that the US military also conducted several strikes targeting missile and air defense systems and IRGC fast attack craft at multiple locations around the strait. The July 11 US strikes also targeted central Iran, including Kerman, Lorestan, Markazi, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad provinces.
This is a geographic expansion, but only the strikes along the coast will have an immediate tactical effect on Iranian operations. The strikes further inland have not yet affected Iranian willingness to continue attacks into the Strait of Hormuz, though that could change, especially if the strikes are coupled with other efforts.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)MORE: Iran has repeatedly rejected efforts to establish alternative transit arrangements outside Iranian control, including the International Maritime Organization-Omani safe-route initiative on June 25, because such routes would weaken Iran’s ability to manage maritime traffic and use the strait as leverage. Senior Iranian officials continue to frame the strait as a matter of sovereignty and regime survival rather than a maritime issue.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2076472930574152007
