Day: June 16, 2026

Strait of Hormuz: Iran will likely try to exploit the agreement’s seemingly ambiguous language about the Strait of Hormuz to try to enforce its control over shipping through the strait. The MoU stipulates that Iran “will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships [through the strait] is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume,” according to Block, Saudi media, and several Western outlets.

Iran is expected to remove “technical obstacles” and naval mines from the strait during the 30-day period. The reported MOU text does not explicitly bar Iran from “managing” the strait, and Iran could therefore continue to insist on vessels using its illegal traffic separation scheme in Iranian territorial waters and paying “fees” to the IRGC Navy.

The MoU text also states that the United States and Iran will “respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.” The Iranian regime has repeatedly claimed that it and Oman control the Strait of Hormuz as territorial waters. Iran could also try to argue that its “management” of the strait is an Iranian internal affair. The MoU text also does not mention whether Iran can charge tolls, despite President Trump stating on June 14 that vessels can pass through the strait “toll-free.” Some versions of the agreement published in Western media on June 16 do mention that Iran will not charge tolls for 60 days and that Iran will work with Oman to “define future administration and maritime services” in the strait, however. IRGC-affiliated media stated on June 15 that Iran will pause charging “fees” for 60 days but intends to resume charging “fees” after that period. Iranian officials have consistently claimed that Iran is charging “service fees” as opposed to tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore that vessels are able to transit through the strait “toll-free.”Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Multiple sources published what appears to be the text of the US-Iran agreement. Neither the United States nor Iran has officially published the text of the agreement at this time. The leaked text of the agreement, if accurate, indicates that Iran has emerged from the conflict in a stronger strategic position, however. ⬇️

The MoU reportedly grants Iran significant economic relief, which Iran would likely use to try to reconstitute its missile, drone, and nuclear programs, as well as the Axis of Resistance. The MoU states that Iran could receive further economic relief by fulfilling its commitments in the MoU and reaching a final agreement that addresses key nuclear issues. ISW-CTP has not observed any indications that Iranian decision-makers are willing to make concessions on the nuclear issues that would be included in a final agreement, however.

Iran will likely try to exploit the agreement’s seemingly ambiguous language about the Strait of Hormuz to try to enforce its control over shipping through the strait. The reported text of the agreement does not explicitly bar Iran from “managing” the strait, and Iran could therefore continue to insist on vessels using its illegal traffic separation scheme in Iranian territorial waters and paying “fees” to the IRGC Navy.

The Iranian regime is interpreting the clause in the agreement about a ceasefire “on all fronts” as a requirement for Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon. This interpretation is part of a broader Iranian effort to preserve Hezbollah by trying to secure Israel’s capitulation in Lebanon.

The reported MoU terms indicate that Iran structured the agreement in a way to try to limit the United States’ ability to impose renewed pressure on Iran during the 60-day negotiations period and thereby make it more challenging for the United States to extract concessions from Iran during the negotiations.

Iranian officials and media are largely framing the US-Iran MoU as an Iranian victory that codifies Iran’s military achievements. The Iranian regime’s English-language media outlet, Press TV, argued on June 16 that the MoU is not simply a ceasefire, but rather represents the “political codification of a battlefield reality.”—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2067068251377381685

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jun 17, 2026