Day: November 4, 2025

#SouthCaucasus
#Russia and  #Azerbaijan – GS  google.com/search?q=russia+a…
Russia and Azerbaijan share a border and have a complex, historically intertwined relationship, though it has become more  #tense recently. Historically, ties were based on shared imperial and Soviet legacies, including strong economic links and a significant Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia. However, recent events, such as the downing of an Azerbaijani plane by Russia in December 2024 and subsequent retaliatory actions, have severely strained their relationship, though a full break remains unlikely due to deep-seated economic and political interests. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]
Recent tensions and events

Plane incident: A Russian air defense system was suggested as the cause for the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight in December 2024, which killed 38 people. Russia has denied this, citing a bird strike instead. [5]
Retaliation: In response, Azerbaijan shut down the Russian state media outlet Sputnik and arrested two employees it claimed were Russian FSB agents. [1, 7]
Diaspora crackdown: Russia conducted large-scale arrests of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, leading to the deaths of two brothers, which Baku has labeled as extrajudicial killings and torture. [1, 6, 7, 8]
Cyberattacks: Azerbaijan has accused Russia of conducting a major cyberattack against its media institutions in February. [7]
Bilateral actions: There have been canceled high-level meetings, suspension of bilateral commissions, and a crackdown on Russian cultural events in Azerbaijan. [6]

Historical and ongoing ties

Shared history: The relationship has been shaped by the shared imperial and Soviet legacies, and Azerbaijan declared independence in 1991. [2, 9]
Economic connections: Russia is an important market for Azerbaijani agricultural exports and a key transit route for its trade. Azerbaijan also imports energy from Russia and its businessmen hold significant assets in Russia’s economy. [4]
Remittances: A large portion of remittances to Azerbaijan come from the hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis living and working in Russia. [4, 10]

The future of their relationship

Shifting balance: The current crisis is seen by some as an attempt by Azerbaijan to assert itself as an equal regional power, leading to a recalibration of the relationship.
Negotiation, not divorce: Despite the recent escalations, a complete break is considered unlikely due to the extensive economic, logistical, and political interests that bind them. The crisis is viewed more as a renegotiation of their relationship rather than an end to it. [2, 11]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1]  jamestown.org/program/azerba…
[2]  atlasinstitute.org/russia-az…
[3]  britannica.com/place/Azerbai…
[4]  apnews.com/article/russia-az…
[5]  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerba…
[6]  genocidewatch.com/single-pos…
[7]  youtube.com/watch?v=wL8nhzhM…
[8]  atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ne…
[9]  britannica.com/place/Azerbai…
[10]  carnegieendowment.org/russia…
[11]  civilnet.am/en/news/966663/r…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 4, 2025