Taiwan experts dismiss claims that China could blockade island with few submarines

A leading Taiwanese defence analyst has dismissed the assertion that China could effectively blockade Taiwan using only a small number of submarines, arguing that such a military strategy is both logistically and strategically implausible, reports 24brussels.

During a seminar hosted by the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University, Alexander Huang, a strategic studies scholar at Tamkang University, rebutted claims made by China affairs expert Willy Lam. Lam, a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, previously asserted at a symposium in Washington that China could impose a naval blockade around Taiwan with just four or five submarines.

Huang emphasized the feasibility issues of such a blockade, citing that even nuclear-powered submarines face operational limitations. “A nuclear submarine can stay submerged for extended periods, but the crew still needs food, rest, and rotation. No vessel can maintain its position forever,” he stated. Furthermore, he warned that any attempt at a blockade would pose significant risks for Chinese submarines. “It’s not only about sustaining the blockade, but also about whether those submarines could return safely. Other nations’ naval forces could easily obstruct their path back to Chinese ports,” he added, reinforcing that Taiwan possesses the capability to respond effectively if necessary.

Huang also indicated that a prolonged blockade could provoke international ramifications. “If the US were to restrict Chinese vessels in the Strait of Malacca, or target China’s Yangshan Port near Shanghai, Beijing would face immense economic repercussions,” he explained.

Lam’s comments elicited immediate pushback from Taiwanese officials. Taiwan’s Representative to the U.S., Alexander Yui, countered Lam’s assertions by emphasizing the strong resolve of the Taiwanese population to self-defend, as reported by Taipei Times. Additionally, Liang Wen-chieh, deputy head of the Mainland Affairs Council, dismissed Lam’s theory, declaring that if a blockade were so easily achievable, Taiwan’s decades of defence preparations “would have been meaningless.” This exchange underscores Taiwan’s firm position that China’s military coercion, including any potential naval blockade, remains more theoretical than practical, as per the reports.