Day: October 3, 2025

MORE: Russian forces likely stockpiled ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct a few large-scale drone and missile strikes on select days.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on October 2 that Russian forces launched 6,900 drones against Ukraine in September 2025, including more than 3,600 Shahed-type drones.

Russian forces do not regularly launch missiles in nightly strike packages against Ukraine and often go several days without using missiles in these packages. Russian forces appear to be stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles most days and then launching large numbers of missiles in conjunction with large numbers of drones, likely to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems.

Russian forces notably only conducted four overnight strikes containing over 10 missiles in September 2025 and have conducted one overnight strike containing over 40 missiles roughly every two weeks since late August 2025, underscoring Russia’s recent pattern of intermittently conducting a few large, combined strikes between Russia’s most consistent, smaller drone strikes.

Russian forces are continuing to use more cruise missiles and fewer ballistic missiles in combined strikes and are likely continuing to rely on ballistic missiles to conduct pinpoint strikes on specific targets while using drones and cruise missiles to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

Ukraine’s Patriot air defense systems remain Ukraine’s only air defense systems capable of downing Russian ballistic missiles, and Russian forces may be specifically targeting cities and energy infrastructure not actively defended by Ukraine’s Patriot systems to increase the chances that Russia successfully strikes its intended target. x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1974272211654422875

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Oct 4, 2025