Day: August 12, 2025

As US President Donald Trump and Russian ruler Vladimir Putin prepare to meet in Alaska later this week, the main topic of international discussion appears to be exactly how much land Ukraine must hand over to Russia in order to secure a ceasefire.

This apparent readiness to change borders by force and abandon one of the central principles of international law is extremely short-sighted and risks undermining norms established at great cost over many decades of conflict and confrontation. Ignoring the lessons of the past in this manner would profoundly weaken the world order and set the stage for future wars. Unless the current course is corrected, any temporary relief from Russian aggression will be more than offset by the grave damage done to global security.

Nobody in Ukraine would question the need to end the current war. The Ukrainian population has experienced barely imaginable suffering for more than three and a half years amid the largest European invasion since World War II. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed. More than ten million have been forced to flee their homes. Dozens of Ukrainian towns and cities have been reduced to rubble.

Despite the unprecedented horror and trauma of Russia’s ongoing invasion, most Ukrainians recognize that limited territorial concessions will not bring a lasting peace. They note that Moscow’s so-called peace terms represent a thinly veiled demand for Kyiv’s capitulation, and understand perfectly well that Moscow’s goal is to destroy Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a nation. Indeed, this process of national erasure is already well underway in the approximately 20 percent of Ukraine currently under Russian occupation. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that very few Ukrainians believe offering Putin more land will somehow end the bloodshed.

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Unless Russia’s invasion is stopped, the consequences will clearly be catastrophic for Ukraine. However, Ukrainians will not be the only victims. In reality, Putin’s imperial ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine. Since 2022, he has repeatedly justified the invasion of Ukraine by framing it as a campaign to reclaim “historically Russian lands.” This definition could equally be applied to more than a dozen other independent states that were once ruled by Russia. Putin’s ultimate objective is to restore the Russian Empire and establish a new world order dominated by a handful of great powers.

Russian victory in Ukraine would embolden Putin and validate his entire revisionist imperial agenda. A triumphant Kremlin would then seek to maintain the geopolitical momentum generated in Ukraine and capitalize on the demoralization of the democratic world. Possible initial targets for the next phase of Russian aggression would include Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and the countries of Central Asia.

The likelihood would also increase of active Russian moves against nearby NATO member states such as Poland, Finland, or the Baltic nations. This could take the form of a conventional invasion or a hybrid assault similar to the 2014 seizure of Crimea. Either way, Moscow’s intention would be to test NATO’s core commitment to collective security. At that point, the United States would be faced with the choice of entering into a war with Russia or backing down and leaving the future of the entire NATO alliance in question.

In addition to encouraging further Kremlin aggression, Russian success in Ukraine would also bury the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Putin’s use of nuclear blackmail over the past three years to intimidate the West and deter support for Ukraine has proved highly effective and has sent an unambiguous message that non-nuclear nations can be bullied by nuclear powers. Unless the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling is addressed, more and more countries will feel they have no choice but to establish their own nuclear arsenals as the only credible security guarantee.

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A Russian victory over Ukraine would serve as a green light for authoritarian rulers around the world. China, Iran, North Korea, and many others would all draw the same conclusion that the West has grown too weak to defend its own core values or the broader standards of international law that have shaped global security since World War II. Instead, the laws of the geopolitical jungle would now apply, with territorial conquest back on the table.

In this dangerous and unstable new international environment, the United States could soon find itself confronted with simultaneous security challenges on a variety of geographical fronts ranging from Europe and Asia to the Middle East. Key allies like Israel, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan would be more vulnerable than ever.

Meanwhile, global trust in the United States would be significantly undermined by the fall of Ukraine. This would make it far more challenging for Washington to maintain existing strategic partnerships. In all likelihood, many formerly pro-Western countries throughout the Global South would look to pivot toward new alliances with China and Russia.

There is nothing inevitable about this descent into an era of insecurity and international aggression. It is still possible for the West to avert such an outcome by backing the defense of Ukraine and preventing Russia’s invasion from succeeding. Crucially, Ukrainians are not asking their Western partners to fight for them. All they require is sufficient military aid to regain the battlefield initiative and bring the war home to Russia, along with effective Western measures to restrict the financing of Putin’s war machine.

Pressuring Ukraine to accept a Kremlin-friendly settlement may succeed in pausing the current war, but it will not bring a lasting peace. On the contrary, it will legitimize policies of expansionist aggression and set the stage for international instability on a far larger scale. The world will become a much more dangerous place and the cost of stopping Putin’s Russia will only rise.

Pavlo Zhovnirenko is Chairman of the Board at the Center for Strategic Studies in Kyiv.

Further reading

UkraineAlert
Jul 14, 2025

A Western-funded drone surge could end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

By
Mark Boris Andrijanič

Ukraine has the technology, talent, and industrial potential to prevail in the war with Russia, but currently lacks the funding to scale drone production to the necessary levels, writes Mark Boris Andrijanič.

Conflict
Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert
Aug 11, 2025

Alaska Summit: Trump must press Putin over future Ukrainian security

By
John E. Herbst

Trump-Putin Alaska Summit: If Moscow insists on the acceptance of Russian control over Ukrainian land for a ceasefire, it must accept strong measures to bolster Ukrainian security as well, writes John E. Herbst.

Conflict
European Union

UkraineAlert
Jul 30, 2025

A Ukraine without Ukrainians: Putin is erasing Europe’s largest nation

By
Peter Dickinson

Russia is systematically erasing all traces of Ukrainian national identity throughout occupied Ukraine as Vladimir Putin pursues an extreme form of eliminationist imperialism in the heart of twenty-first century Europe, writes Peter Dickinson.

Civil Society
Conflict

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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The latest Siena College poll had more good news for Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani in the November general election — and some troubling early news for Gov. Kathy Hochul in her 2026 re-election campaign.

Results of the survey, released Tuesday, found that Mamdani, a democratic socialist, continues to lead the crowded mayor’s race with 44% of the vote. However, that result was gleaned from a small New York City-based 317-person slice of the poll, which overall spoke to 813 registered Democratic voters statewide between Aug. 4-7, shows.

The pollsters note that the mayor’s race results come from a New York City sample that was included as part of the statewide registered voter sample and not weighted as part of a city likely voter sample. The margin of error is +/- 6.7% and they say some of the results should be taken as anecdotal.

The poll shows Mamdani holding a nearly 20-point lead over his next closest rival, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — 44% to 25%. Coming behind Cuomo, who is running as an independent, is Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa at 12% and independent incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 7%.

Since winning the Democratic primary in late June, Mamdani has consistently led in public polling for the November general election.

Hochul slips against Stefanik

Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Hochul’s projected lead in a potential 2026 general election match-up with GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik shrank by nine points compared to June, while her job approval and favorability numbers grew slightly over the same period.

The survey found that Hochul now leads Stekanik by 14 points (45% to 31%), a dip from the 25-point (47% to 24%) advantage she held over the North Country Congress member just two months ago.

Stekanik, a close ally of President Trump’s, has emerged as Hochul’s most likely Republican challenger, after Hudson Valley GOP Rep. Mike Lawler announced he would seek reelection to his swing seat rather than run for governor late last month. However, she has yet to officially launch her bid, indicating last month she would not make a decision until after this year’s November election.

At the same time, the poll showed Hochul’s favorability among New York voters grew by three points over the same period — from 42% to 47% in June to 42% to 44% now. Her job approval rating is also up slightly, 53% to 42%, compared to 50% to 45% two months ago.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, in a statement, posited that Stefanik could seize on the narrowing gap as the race draws closer.

“While the Governor can trumpet her best job approval rating since March 2023, there is little doubt that Stefanik will highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45% to 31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’” Greenberg said.

The pollster further noted that both candidates have well over a majority of supporter from their respective parties — Hochul with more than two-thirds of Democrats behind her and Stefanik with roughly three-fourths of Republicans backing her. Independents now favor Stefanik (32% to 35%) after leaning toward Hochul in June.

The governor is still solidly ahead in New York City, with 55% to Stefanik’s 19%, the survey found. But Stefanik now holds a narrow lead in the city’s suburbs (39% to 41%) and the pair are neck-and-neck upstate — where Hochul, a Buffalo native, sits at 40% and Stefanik at 39%.

Stefanik has a favorability rating of 27% to 32% and 41% of voters say they do not know or have never heard of her.

“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively,” Greenberg said. “While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik. Republicans think she has the right experience to be governor, Democrats don’t, and independents are closely divided.”

The poll also found that Hochul will likely be the Democratic nominee as she holds a commanding 35% lead over her primary oponent — Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.