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Relations between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin have worsened following the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane crash. However, this cooling is unlikely to be long-lasting, according to the material by RBC-Ukraine.
Completely ruining relations is not in the interest of either Azerbaijan or Russia. The current cooling of relations is unlikely to be long-lasting and will probably last at most a few months or half a year, according to the head of the Center for Applied Political Research Penta Volodymyr Fesenko.
An example of this can be the 2015 incident when a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 near the Syrian border. This triggered a full-blown crisis, with Moscow clashing with Ankara and even imposing sanctions. However, after a few months, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan apologized, and relations gradually normalized.
“Of course, there are still some contradictions between Putin and Erdoğan, but they have restored not just nominally friendly, but also partnership relations in many areas. I think the situation with Azerbaijan will be similar,” he noted.
The episode with the AZAL plane crash and the “nonsensical versions” revealed the nature of Putin’s regime.
“It is a distorted ‘great power mentality,’ an immoral way of behaving when Russia cannot admit its guilt, and does not want to act the way civilized countries do in such situations. Right now, Aliyev is offended and cannot ignore the dignity of his state, so he has to show a strong reaction. Relations with Putin are important to him, he does not intend to quarrel, but at the same time, he showed that he will not turn a blind eye. Moreover, this also shows that Putin is no longer feared as he once was,” Fesenko concluded.
Plane crash in Kazakhstan
On December 25, a passenger plane Embraer 190 of Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan. The flight was en route from Baku to Grozny.
There were 67 people on board, including the crew. The crash resulted in 38 fatalities.
According to media reports, drones were being shot down in Grozny that day, and the plane may have been hit, so it was unable to land. As a result, the Embraer 190 crashed near Aktau.
As reported by Euronews, Azerbaijani authorities confirmed that the crash was caused by a Russian missile.
Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the “tragic incident” involving the Azerbaijan Airlines plane but did not acknowledge that the aircraft was shot down by Russian forces.
More details about the crash can be found in the material by RBC-Ukraine.
(@UKikaski) 