Day: September 27, 2024

Calls for a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict are toothless, according to Col. Phil Ingram, a former British Army Intelligence Officer and NATO planner. Ingram added that it will also be very difficult to halt a military operation of the scale that Israel has initiated in southern Lebanon.

“It’s like a super tanker, but it’s one that’s larger than any you’ve encountered before. If you bring it to a stop and then try to restart it, the cost in lives—both for your own people and those affected—can be significantly great,” according to Ingram.  

In an interview with National Security News, Col. Ingram outlined how the United Kingdom will tackle repatriating 10,000 British citizens from Lebanon should a full-scale war break out. 

Western nations are pushing for a ceasefire deal ahead of Netanyahu’s speech at the United Nations. US President Joe Biden, along with French President Emmanuel Macron and other international partners, recently proposed a 21-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah to enable the safe return of the 70,000 displaced Israelis to their homes along Israel’s northern border and provide time for a hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza.

Netanyahu, who earlier indicated that he is not interested in a ceasefire, but indicated that talks would continue in the coming days following meetings with US officials. The Israeli Prime Minister appears determined to proceed with his plans of a ground offensive against the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon, regardless of Western diplomatic pressure. 

“Israel will do whatever it takes to protect its citizens,” he said in a recent address, signalling that military operations could continue for an extended period. 

Lebanon’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib also called on Israel to adopt an immediate cease-fire and halt its strikes within Lebanese borders, noting that the cause of the current conflict was Israel’s ongoing occupation. 

The shortest path for the return of displaced Israelis in the north,” he said, “is a comprehensive, immediate cease-fire as stipulated in the US-Franco declaration yesterday … as part of a comprehensive framework accompanied by clear international guarantees, transparency, and a definitive end to land, sea, and air incursions and breaches of Lebanese sovereignty.”

Col. Ingram pointed out that there was already a United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which was brought in after the Israeli-Lebanon war in 2006, calling for a demilitarisation zone of about 28 kilometres in Southern Lebanon, and a call for the disbandment of Hezbollah and other armed groups in the area.

“That hasn’t lasted very well, even after the Security Council resolution, which does have teeth,” he said. The statement by 21 Western allies and some Arab nations for a ceasefire, Ingram added, is toothless.

The Israeli Prime Minister is unlikely to alter his course based on external pressures as his government is driven by internal political dynamics and the continuing threat from Hezbollah, Ingram stated. 

“I think Israelis going to go ahead and do what Israel says it needs to do. I think they believe that they’ve got to the end of the military operation against Hamas and Gaza. We have to remember that since the 8th of October last year, Hezbollah have been rocketing Israel from the north on a daily basis. They’ve displaced 60,000 Israeli civilians out of towns and villages along the edge of the border.”

Hezbollah is one of the largest criminal organisations in the Middle East

Hezbollah, he said has killed tens of Israelis including children and rocketing football matches.  

“They have some members from the political wing in the government in Lebanon, but they have military forces that has nothing to do with the Lebanese army,” he says, “and it is their military forces that is attacking Israel and is provoking Israel.  

Colonel Ingram described Hezbollah as one of the largest criminal organisations in the Middle East that controls all drug trafficking. 

“There are money laundering and prostitution rings throughout Middle East countries, including child prostitution. They’re not a bunch of nice people.”

How the UK will repatriate 10,000 UK citizens from Lebanon

Ingram described the evacuation of 10,000 British citizens out of Lebanon as a serious challenge but says it is something that is well-rehearsed and well-planned. 

“For every country around the world, our foreign and Commonwealth officers are constantly working with our intelligence services, looking at the threat that’s there. If there is a potential for a threat to British citizens in that country, the plans come off the shelf.”

The first step, which has already been put in place, is clear statements from the government advising British passport holders to leave Lebanon immediately and by any means possible. “That always happens while there are still commercial air and sea routes out of the country because they want to minimise the footprint of the number of individuals that are there,” according to Colonel Ingram.

For a non-combat evacuation, he indicated that pre-deployment will take place with all the capabilities that you need just in case

“So, there are ships in Cyprus. We’ve got aircraft in Cyprus. The troops have gone into Cyprus because if you’re going to put a ship into a Lebanese port, you need to make sure that it is going to be secure.”

In extreme circumstances, the troops will be there to potentially go and lift some key people if they need to if they find themselves trapped, but Ingram says that is the exception rather than the rule.  

Netanyahu is driven by internal politics, not only the will to defend Israel

The Israeli Prime Minister is framing both his political and military stances from a domestic perspective; it is not solely aimed at the protection of Israel, according to Ingram. 

“We have to remember that his coalition is only held together by extreme right elements within it. If his coalition falls apart and the government collapses, Netanyahu still has the spectre of criminal charges hanging over him from the past, and therefore it’s almost in his personal priority to keep the conflict going as long as possible… He could have resolved things a lot more quickly.”

Ingram said it will only be known where the United States stands on this issue if it goes to a Security Council resolution. But, he said, “that would be hypocritical because there’s already a Security Council resolution covering issues in that southern part of Lebanon, and that hasn’t been enforced at all.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasised to Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer that further escalation would make it more difficult to return evacuated Israelis to their homes along the northern border.

The post Lebanon ceasefire calls lack clout, says senior military expert first appeared on National Security News.

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