Day: June 30, 2024

GABORONE, Botswana — Violent extremist groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group are growing in size and influence across Africa, fueling worries that as they improve their tactics they could attack the U.S. or Western allies.

U.S. defense and military officials described the threats and their concerns about growing instability in Africa, where a number of coups have put ruling juntas in control, leading to the ouster of American troops and a decline in U.S. intelligence gathering.

“Threats like Wagner, terrorist groups and transnational criminal organizations continue to sow instability in multiple regions,” Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in opening remarks Tuesday at a conference of African chiefs of defense in Botswana. “I think we can all agree, what happens in one part of the world, does not stay in one part of the world.”

Wagner is the Russian mercenary group that has gone into African nations to provide security as Western forces, including from the U.S. and France, have been pushed out. The group is known for its brutality, and human rights organizations have accused its members of raping and killing civilians.

While Brown only touched briefly on the terror threat in the region, it was a key topic among others at the conference and spurred questions from military chiefs in the audience after his speech. They wanted to know what the U.S. could do to help stem the spread of insurgents in West Africa, the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel.

This is the first time that the chiefs of defense conference has been held on African soil. And it is the first time the U.S. joint chiefs chairman has visited a sub-Saharan country since 1994, when Gen. John Shalikashvili visited Rwanda and Zaire.

A senior U.S. defense official said al-Qaida linked groups — such as al-Shabab in Somalia and Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, known as JNIM, in the Sahel region — are the largest and most financially viable insurgencies. JNIM is active in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger and is looking to expand into Benin and Togo, which it uses as hubs to rest, recuperate, get financing and gather weapons but also has increased attacks there.

At the same time, the Islamic State group has key cells in West Africa and in the Sahel. The defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a threat assessment, said the Islamic State cells were getting increasing direction from the group’s leadership that relocated to northern Somalia. That has included how to kidnap Westerners for ransom, how to learn better military tactics, how to hide from drones and how to building their own small quadcopters.

A U.S. military airstrike in Somalia on May 31 targeted Islamic State militants and killed three, according to U.S. Africa Command. U.S. officials have said the strike targeted the group’s leader, but the defense official said Monday that it’s still unclear if he was killed.

Roughly 200 Islamic State insurgents are in Somalia, so they are vastly outnumbered by al-Shabab, which has grown in size to between 10,000 and 12,000.

The growth of the insurgent groups within Africa signals the belief by both al-Qaida and the Islamic State group that the continent is a ripe location for jihadism, where extremist ideology can take root and expand, the official said.

And it comes as the U.S. was ordered to pull out its 1,000 troops from Niger in the wake of last July’s coup and also about 75 from Chad. Those troop cuts, which shut down a critical U.S. counterterrorism and drone base at Agadez, hamper intelligence gathering in Niger, said Gen. Michael Langley, head of U.S. Africa Command.

Surveillance operations before the coup gave the U.S. a greater ability to get intelligence on insurgent movements. Now, he said, the key goal is a safe and secure withdrawal of personnel and equipment from both Agadez and a smaller U.S. facility near the airport.

Langley met with Niger’s top military chief, Brig. Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, during the conference, and said military-to-military communications continue but that it’s yet to be determined how much the new transitional government will deal with the U.S.

Currently, he said, there are about 400 troops still at Agadez and 200 near the airport.

But, he added that “as we’re in transition and resetting, we need to maintain capabilities to get enough intelligence to identify warnings of a threat out there.”

Langley said the U.S. is still trying to assess the militant groups’ capabilities as they grow.

“Yes, they’ve been growing in number. Have they been growing in capability where they can do what we call external ops attacks on the homeland and attacks on allies, whether we’re talking about Europe or anyone? That’s what we closely watch,” he said. “I’d say it has the potential as they grow in numbers.”

Both Langley and Brown spoke more extensively about the need for the U.S. and African nations to communicate more effectively and work together to solve security and other problems.

And Brown acknowledged that the U.S. needs to “do better at understanding the perspectives of others, ensuring their voices and expertise don’t get drowned out.”

The U.S has struggled to maintain relations with African nations as many foster growing ties to Russia and China.

Some African countries have expressed frustration with the U.S. for forcing issues, such as democracy and human rights, that many see as hypocrisy, given Washington’s close ties to some autocratic leaders elsewhere. Meanwhile, Russia offers security assistance without interfering in politics, making it an appealing partner for military juntas that seized power in places like Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso in recent years.

JERUSALEM — Israel’s Supreme Court unanimously ordered the government to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish men into the army — a landmark ruling seeking to end a system that has allowed them to avoid enlistment into compulsory military service.

Roughly 1.3 million ultra-Orthodox Jews make up about 13% of Israel’s population and oppose enlistment because they believe studying full time in religious seminaries is their most important duty.

An enlistment exemption for the ultra-Orthodox goes back to the founding of Israel in 1948, when small numbers of gifted scholars were exempt from the draft. But with a push from politically powerful religious parties, those numbers have swelled over the decades. The court said the exemptions were illegal in 2017, but repeated extensions and government delay tactics have prevented a replacement law from being passed. 

Two parties belonging to the Haredim, or “god-fearing” in Hebrew, are essential parts of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fragile coalition, but the broad exemptions from mandatory military service have reopened a deep divide in the country and infuriated much of the general public during the war in Gaza. More than 600 soldiers have been killed since Hamas’ October 7 attack. Many reserve soldiers are starting their second tour of duty.

What does the ruling mean for Netanyahu’s government?

Netanyahu’s coalition holds a slim majority of 64 seats in the 120-member parliament, often requiring him to capitulate to the demands of smaller parties like the ultra-Orthodox.

If those parties leave the government, the country would likely be forced into new elections this fall. Netanyahu’s popularity is low as the war in Gaza drags into its ninth month. 

Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf heads one of the ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu’s coalition. In a post on X, Goldknopf called the Supreme Court’s ruling “very unfortunate and disappointing,” but did not say whether his party would leave the government. The chairman of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, Aryeh Deri, denounced the ruling and said religious study was “our secret weapon against all enemies.”

The court this year temporarily froze state subsidies for seminaries where exempted ultra-Orthodox men study. Along with the enlistment decision, the court also ruled Tuesday that that money should be permanently suspended.

Many religious seminaries depend on government funding and “the general assumption is that the government will not survive this crisis,” said Barak Medina, a law professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an expert on constitutional law.

What did the courts rule?

Military service is compulsory for most Jewish men and women, who serve three and two years, respectively, in active duty, as well as reserve duty until around age 40.

The Israeli Supreme Court ruled that compulsory military service applies to the ultra-Orthodox just like any other Israeli. The judges said that allowing a certain community a “sweeping avoidance” of service amounted to discrimination.

“Discrimination regarding the most precious thing of all – life itself – is the worst kind,” the justices wrote in their opinion.

In 2017, the Supreme Court struck down a law that codified draft exemptions. Repeated extensions of the law and government tactics to delay a replacement law have dragged on for years.

Israel’s judiciary plays a large role in checking the government’s executive power. Netanyahu attempted to overhaul the judiciary last year, spurring massive protests across the country before a major part of the overhaul was struck down.

When will this go into effect?

It will be challenging for the army integrate a larger number of ultra-Orthodox deeply opposed to service into its ranks.

Among Israel’s Jewish majority, mandatory military service is largely seen as a melting pot and a rite of passage. The ultra-Orthodox say that integrating into the army will threaten their generations-old way of life, and that their devout lifestyle and dedication to upholding the Jewish commandments protect Israel as much as a strong army does.

The courts did not set numbers for enlistment in their ruling, but Israel’s attorney general’s office suggested that at least 3,000 ultra-Orthodox soldiers enlist in the coming year. The court said in its ruling that some 63,000 ultra-Orthodox students are eligible for enlistment.

For decades, the army has attempted to accommodate ultra-Orthodox soldiers by creating separate units that allow them to maintain religious practices, including minimizing interaction with women. One of the units created for this purpose, Netzah Yehudah, faced possible U.S. sanctions over their treatment of Palestinians, though the U.S. eventually decided not to impose sanctions.

What impact will this have on the war in Gaza?

The ruling will have little immediate effect on the war in Gaza, where more than 37,600 Palestinians have been killed, according to the territory’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians in its count. The number of ultra-Orthodox who might enlist because of the ruling is too small to have a significant impact on day-to-day fighting.

Medina, the law professor, said that if the ruling topples the government, it could give Netanyahu more leeway to reach a deal for a cease-fire that could end the war in Gaza.

“Currently, one of the main reasons he’s prevented from reaching an agreement for the end of the war is because it will mean the end of his coalition,” said Medina.

If the ultra-Orthodox parties leave the coalition, Netanyahu has “nothing to lose,” he said. And that could lead to a change in policy without the pressure from far-right ministers opposed to any kind of cease-fire. Netanyahu will also be under a lot of pressure to wrap up fighting if early elections are called, to avoid going into the elections without the hostages and while a war is still ongoing, Medina said.

The Labour leader must act quickly to establish a zero-tolerance approach to rule-breaking in the new parliament

Sir Keir Starmer is prime minister presumptive. Unless the polls are more wrong than they have ever been or there is a sensational late shift in opinion the like of which we’ve never seen, in five days’ time he will be delivering his first speech to the nation from Downing Street. If he follows the model of predecessors, he will introduce himself as PM by making solemn undertakings “to repay your trust”.

That was the phrase used the day after the 2019 election by Boris Johnson. He then went on to demonstrate that the only thing he could be relied on to deliver was serial mendacities. If Sir Keir proclaims that he will prove worthy of the country’s trust, he had better be believable. Given the grimness of the inheritance about to land in Labour’s lap, and the time it will take to grapple with it, he will need to persuade the public to give him the benefit of the doubt that his plans will reward patience.

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