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Trump’s pledge to deport the most US workers in history could trigger recession and an inflation spike, economist says


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AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

  • Trump’s vows to carry out a major deportation campaign is a stagflationary threat, Adam Posen told Bloomberg TV.
  • The think tank expert says this would lead to a manufacturing-centered recession.
  • Adding to inflation risk are also Trump’s trade proposals, as he pledges to lift tariffs.

Donald Trump’s vow to initiate the country’s biggest deportation campaign is a massive stagflationary hazard, risking an economic downturn amid even tighter monetary policy, one think-tank economist said.

Still, it’s a proposal the Republican candidate would have the legal backing to pursue, Peterson Institute president Adam Posen said.

If committed, Trump would have to remove over 1.2 million immigrants to break through the previous deportation record. At the same time, he’s also pledged to deport all undocumented workers from the US, which total 7.5 million people, Posen said.

In effect, that’s a major depletion of labor supply, he noted, which would increase the price firms need to pay for to attract workers. While that would hike costs for consumers down the line, shrunken labor typically means slower economic growth.

“Leaving aside the human issues, the implementation issues, what this would mean for the economy is a manufacturing-centered recession,” he told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday. “And inflation would go up so it would actually be stagflation, but the inflationary effects would then be outweighed by the recession.”

In past months, a handful of institutions have pointed out surging immigration as a net-positive for the economy, with foreign-born workers taking on cheap labor and pushing up US output.

To Posen, the immigration-inflation risk is made worse when combined with Trump’s trade proposals, as the former president has touted higher tariffs across the board.

Given that taxing US imports will typically reduce the inflow of products entering the country, the reduced supply means higher prices on both domestic and foreign products, experts have warned.

If Trump follows up on his word, markets should expect the Federal Reserve to aggressively hike interest rates, as few other solutions exist in a stagflationary scenario. In Posen’s view, policy will rise well over 100 basis points through the second half of 2025.

To be sure, a continued Biden presidency comes with its own inflation risks, he said, though they won’t reach the extremes expected of a Trump administration.

The current president has also leaned into protectionism, recently amplifying trade tariffs on certain Chinese products. Similarly, Biden has modestly boosted restrictions on immigration. Under him, the Fed will likely have to raise rates once or twice.

That’s also as both candidates are facing more broader inflationary factors in the near-term future, Posen noted.

For instance, federal spending is presumed to go up whoever wins the office, while the Fed’s current interest rates have not been tight enough to put the brakes on inflation, he said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Ahead of Biden-Trump debate, Georgia voters weigh 2024 decision – BBC.com


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Democratic super PAC Trump ad might be borderline criminal. – Slate


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Should Trump Get Jail Time? A Survey of Sentences for Falsifying Business Records in the First Degree – Just Security


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Biden-Trump debate 2024: What experts want to see addressed about health care – NBC News


The post Biden-Trump debate 2024: What experts want to see addressed about health care – NBC News first appeared on Trump And Trumpism – The News And Times.


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JD Vance explains support for Trump: He brought ‘freedom, prosperity’ – Fox News


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VOA Newscasts


Give us 5 minutes, and we’ll give you the world. Around the clock, Voice of America keeps you in touch with the latest news. We bring you reports from our correspondents and interviews with newsmakers from across the world.

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Delhi Grapples with Water Woes Amid Heat Wave 


New Delhi — Mushrat Parveen, a resident of a low-income neighborhood in the Indian capital, New Delhi, perches atop a tanker truck delivering water to her neighborhood to escape the chaos that ensues.

“Everyone keeps fighting for water, so I climb on top and use a pipe to make sure I fill two or three buckets. Then I help others,” says Parveen, who in recent weeks has been spending about two hours daily first waiting for the truck, then filling containers and lugging them home.

As taps in urban slums and working-class areas in Delhi run virtually dry, millions have been depending on water ferried by government tankers. It is not the only Indian megacity running low on water. Two months ago, a similar crisis afflicted India’s information technology hub, Bengaluru.

Water shortages are not new in urban India — the scramble for water in low-income areas has been a familiar scene during summer months for many years. But they have been worsening. Amid a weekslong, searing heat wave that gripped Delhi, the city became so parched this season that police were deployed to guard water pipes.

New Delhi’s water minister, Atishi, recently staged a hunger strike for four days, alleging that the neighboring Haryana state was not providing the city its share of water from the Yamuna river that runs through both places, resulting in acute scarcity.

“There are 2.8 million people in the city who are aching for just a drop of water,” she said. Her worsening health forced her to call off the protest on Tuesday.

Political disputes over sharing of water from common rivers have often erupted when shortages intensify.

Experts say rapid urbanization is exacerbating a problem that has been building in recent years.

“What’s happened is that most Indian cities have grown so fast that the water supply networks have not kept up with the rate of growth. Its unprecedented crazy growth,” said Veena Srinivasan, executive director with non-profit WELL Labs.

The populations of Delhi and Bengaluru have more than tripled in about three decades. Delhi is now home to nearly 20 million people while Bengaluru’s population is estimated at 14 million.

These cities have become home to upscale commercial hubs and industries as India’s economy booms, requiring more quality, fresh water. As a result, lakes and rivers harnessed to provide water have been shrinking and ground water levels plummeting.

A 2018 government report said that nearly 600 million people in the country are facing high to extreme “water stress.” That adds more than 40% of the country’s population.

While upscale neighborhoods in Delhi face virtually no scarcity of clean water, experts say slums are the most parched areas in the city.

“In some places especially the lower socioeconomic areas, we find that water availability is as low as 35 to 40 liters per capita per day. So, the distribution of water is iniquitous. On top, climate change comes as a force multiplier,” said Anjal Prakash, research director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy.

He says lack of investment in infrastructure such as water pipes and storage tanks has made the problem worse. “We have done some patchwork, but we have not done an integrated analysis of how this should be running. Delhi, for example, the leakage from the water infrastructure is about 58%.”

While India is a water-stressed country, the severe shortages cannot just be blamed on a shortfall of water, according to experts. Pointing to poor water management, they say authorities have not paid enough attention to strategies such as recycling wastewater or rainwater harvesting that would help conserve monsoon rains.

Experts say low water tariffs charged in India have also discouraged sufficient investment in schemes that could augment supplies.

“If water is free most of the time, the incentive to invest in good technology to really treat water, the incentive to harvest every last drop of rainwater, simply is not there, because it is not seen as a precious resource that is scarce. That remains a problem we have to grapple with in urban India,” points out Srinivasan.

For many Delhi residents, lives are upended by the water crisis every summer. Elderly residents like 82-year-old Kamlesh Devi say they cannot cope with the elbowing and shoving that ensues when tankers arrive.

“Four to six people come from one household and corner many buckets. Some of us keep standing. If we object, a scuffle ensues,” she says as she carries back two small containers that she will keep aside for drinking.

Ayesha Khatun, a diabetes patient relies on her family members to fetch water for cooking and cleaning because she cannot carry the buckets. “Our work gets affected. My husband sometimes loses a day’s work. My daughter has to skip school,” says Khatun. “And it is common for people to get hurt during the scuffles while filling water.”

With heat waves and water shortages likely to worsen, the situation in urban India could become grimmer, experts warn.

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Brazen attacks outside Iran’s borders prompt push to better protect journalists


As Tehran ramps up attacks on the diaspora news outlet Iran International, lawyers are working with U.S. officials to push back. From Washington, VOA’s Liam Scott has the story. Videographer: Adam Greenbaum.

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HUR Cyberattack Hits Russian Internet Providers in Occupied Crimea


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The cyberattack is the latest in a string of recent ones conducted by Ukraine’s Defense intelligence.

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