Day: June 25, 2024

Over the past 90 years, two approaches to managing capitalism emerged in succession, each dominating politics around the globe while enabling unprecedented economic progress. The first, which some refer to as the “New Deal order” and others call social democracy, was born in the Great Depression as capitalist economies struggled with mass unemployment. It avoided the totalitarian traps of both fascism and communism by using government spending through democratic policymaking to strengthen the economy.

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The second order, dubbed neoliberalism by scholars, arose in 1979 and 1980 in response to the struggles of social democracy to rein in high inflation. This order emphasized a limited role for government intervention, led by the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates to manage inflation rather than Congress spending to boost the economy. Neoliberalism ushered in a renewed faith in free markets, less regulation, and low taxes.

These orders made sense of capitalist economies, providing a comforting logic and a feeling of progress; both orders enabled rapid technological advances, higher standards of living across the world, and new frontiers of collective human capability.

It seems, however, that the neoliberal order has now run its course, discredited by a broad contemporary crisis rooted in inequality. The history of the two previous economic orders indicates that the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will set the course for the next chapter of capitalism. And, depending on the result, there’s no guarantee it will be led by the U.S.

Read More: The Coming MAGA Assault on Capitalism

Both social democracy and neoliberalism arose when crises spurred the formation of a new political coalition that captured an enduring majority. First, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal promised to rectify the failings of laissez-faire economics. The unemployment rate when Roosevelt entered office in 1933 was near 25%, and he promised that a bevy of new programs, ranging from the Works Progress Administration to Social Security, would fix the problem.

What made the New Deal an “order” — not just Roosevelt’s economic program — was that when Republicans finally regained the White House in 1952 after 20 years out of power, President Dwight Eisenhower accepted its core tenets and key programs. He determined that fiscal stimulus to manage unemployment and the safety net of Social Security were here to stay, reinforcing both the policies and the democratic process that produced them.

Simultaneously, with American leadership in the post-war era, the principles that defined the New Deal were quickly and successfully adopted throughout western Europe. The result was unprecedented economic growth and improved living standards throughout the 1950s and 1960s. In addition to fewer recessions, Western economies saw strong productivity growth that led to higher wages, supported by strong unions and relatively higher taxes on top earners.

But the tools of the New Deal order ran aground in the 1970s. The oil shocks — which came as OPEC restricted supply first in 1973 and again in 1979 — exacerbated already rising inflation. Governments proved hapless at addressing the resulting stagflation, a stagnant economy alongside skyrocketing inflation. Everything from price controls to rationing gasoline to government spending failed. Persistent inflation made household planning difficult, undermined investment, and sapped confidence in the system.

That created an opening for the next order to emerge. Conservatives Ronald Reagan (in the U.S.) and Margaret Thatcher (in the U.K) won elections with a new economic vision — one that emphasized free markets, free trade, and small government. Reagan benefited immensely from some tough medicine administered by Paul Volcker, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve appointed by Jimmy Carter. Volcker used sky-high interest rates to wring inflation from the economy. This produced a recession, but it also broke the expectation that inflation would remain high. Growth resumed by 1982, and Reagan scored a smashing reelection in 1984 that vindicated the neoliberal vision.

Now it was Democrats who had to adjust to a new order, and in a parallel to Eisenhower’s acceptance of social democracy in the 1950s, Bill Clinton ran as a centrist Democrat and embraced neoliberalism in the 1990s. His success, marked by NAFTA, welfare reform, financial deregulation, and a balanced federal budget, solidified the neoliberal order.

The strong growth and optimism of the 1990s was only partially pierced when the dot-com bubble burst, producing a recession in 2000. The recession was mild and short, and by the mid-2000s economists were labeling the past 25 years “the Great Moderation.” Many naively believed that neoliberalism was the final evolution of capitalism.

But problems were bubbling below the surface. Capitalism only works when people see the inequality that results from market competition as fair. Everyone should believe that they too could be rich if they worked harder or longer or smarter. Indeed, throughout the neoliberal era, economists warned against combating inequality out of fear that the cultural power of meritocracy might be upended. 

But they didn’t grasp that exploding inequality itself could destroy faith in the system. In 1965, a typical CEO earned 20 times as much as the average worker, but by 2021 that ratio had climbed to 400 to one. The neoliberal emphasis on low taxes — the top marginal tax rate in the U.S. declined from 70% to 37% — and reduced government regulation empowered elites and undermined workers. As unions’ power waned, real wages stagnated even as productivity grew. The wealthy put their gains in elaborate financial instruments like mortgage-backed securities, which fueled a bubble rather than increasing productivity that would benefit all Americans.

In the early 2000s, middle class families in the U.S. saw gains in wealth — but not through higher paychecks. Instead, their home values soared. Many responded by cashing in on home equity through additional loans. But when the housing bubble crashed and produced the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, people understandably lost faith in the businesspeople and Wall Street financiers whose supposed innovation had caused a major crisis.

Through the slow recovery after 2008 — itself a result of neoliberal Democrats’ reluctance to provide enough stimulus — the impacts of inequality became clearer and more dire. Working class wages continued to stagnate, an opioid epidemic ravaged parts of the country (enabled by lax regulation and profit-seeking pharmaceutical companies), and suicide rates spiked. The resulting “deaths of despair” led to the most shocking result — a decline in life expectancy concentrated among whites without a college education — the very base of the original neoliberal coalition.

Read More: Our Ancestors Thought We’d Build an Economic Paradise. Instead We Got 2022

That created the seething anger that produced Donald Trump’s stunning victory in 2016. Ironically, the candidate elected in large part due to anger rooted in inequality had only one major legislative achievement: a tax cut that resulted in the very richest individuals paying the lowest overall tax rate, even less than those earning minimum wage.

Despite policies that exacerbated inequality, Trump is back and retains a loyal following. His appeal is a brand of nationalism that offers a sense of shared belonging and purpose — especially to those who feel left behind and excluded from the neoliberal system. Yet, this community is an exclusive one, built along racial and ethnic lines, that thrives on demonizing the opposition. Immigrants are denigrated as “animals, sub-human,” while Democrats are destroying the country.

This rhetoric, which scapegoats rather than governs, has an appeal reminiscent of Hitler’s Germany and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Like those fascist leaders, Trump is promising conflict — from a vast immigration crackdown to vowing retribution against his political enemies. His scorched-earth mindset refuses to accept anything the other party does as legitimate, in stark contrast to the unifying historical moves by Eisenhower and Clinton.

Like Trump, Joe Biden has also abandoned neoliberalism, in his case the kinder, gentler version offered by Clinton and Barack Obama. He has enacted new tariffs on China, increased taxes on the wealthy, begun real investment in renewable energy, reinvigorated antitrust enforcement, and renewed support for unions. These movements all indicate the beginning of a much-needed shift into the next order; the next step is to establish an enduring political coalition.

That leaves Americans with a stark choice. The history of places like Nazi Germany or Putin’s Russia shows that choosing race-based nationalism at best leads to weaker growth and stagnant economies. At worst, this orientation can enable conflict that will spiral into World War III. 

Biden’s vision, by contrast, shows promise to address capitalism’s contemporary crisis, just as Roosevelt’s New Deal and Reagan’s neoliberalism addressed the crises of their moments. And U.S. leadership remains vital. Americans led the past two orders because the economic principles they embraced worked to address crises within democratic systems, with solutions eventually embraced by both political parties. Americans have a choice now to do so again, moving toward the next order that will rein in inequality and capture the dynamism of capitalism to address contemporary challenges. The alternative is conflict, chaos, and instability that will slow progress for humanity and accelerate America’s decline, transforming China and India into the foremost economics in the world.

Alan Green is professor of economics at Stetson University. He is writing a book on the history of capitalism.

Made by History takes readers beyond the headlines with articles written and edited by professional historians. Learn more about Made by History at TIME here. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of TIME editors.

It’s fitting that the first scene of Diane von Furstenberg: Woman in Charge, the new Hulu documentary about the fashion designer, opens with an archival clip of David Letterman introducing her as “the woman who reinvented the dress.” For the majority of her career, von Furstenburg, colloquially referred to as DVF, has been synonymous with the wrap dress, a garment she designed 50 years ago that’s become an iconic emblem of women’s empowerment.

Though the wrap dress as we know it today is considered a classic (and a trusty staple of any working woman’s wardrobe), when von Furstenberg first debuted her design in 1974, it was revolutionary. Though versions of the wrap dress, themselves inspired by early Asian wrap closure garments, existed before von Furstenberg’s, hers became a phenomenon because it captured the spirit of the time, when American culture was being rapidly shaped by movements like women’s liberation and the sexual revolution. Made of stretchy silk jersey with a v-neckline, a tie waist, and a skirt that hit just below the knee, DVF’s wrap dress was comfortable, lightweight, and universally flattering—a stark contrast to the restrictive clothing and masculine suiting often expected of women in the workforce. Offered in a variety of cheeky and eye-catching prints that ran the gamut from bold leopard to colorful geometric patterns, the jersey dress was a study in contrasts: fun yet practical, proper but still sexy—it was a cogent reminder that women are not a monolith. 

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Read more: Diane von Furstenberg Wants You to Know She Gets Down on Herself Sometimes, Too

Although von Furstenberg had favored silk jersey and playful prints since starting her eponymous brand in 1970, she was inspired to create the wrap dress after seeing Julie Nixon Eisenhower wearing a matching DVF wraparound blouse and skirt set in printed jersey for a TV appearance during the Watergate scandal. By making one stylish and easy piece that a woman could don for both work and play, von Furstenberg streamlined the process of getting ready without sacrificing any style. Its fairly reasonable price point (it retailed for $80 when it first debuted in 1974) helped make it a versatile and bold uniform for the busy modern woman, who could put on a DVF wrap dress for the office, then wear it out on the town after she clocked out. In the documentary, Vanessa Friedman, the chief fashion critic for the New York Times, points to the dress’s ability to embody the many shifting roles of women at the time as why it’s been so influential in fashion history

“This dress empowered a giant swath of women who could afford to wear it, which to be honest, is not true of most high fashion,” Friedman says. “Diane’s dress exists in the middle of the history of women’s rights, women in the workforce and women finding their own voice.”

For von Furstenberg, the wrap dress as a trailblazing emblem of feminist style is deeply personal and mirrors her own journey to finding empowerment as both a feminist and an entrepreneur in the fashion industry, which was primarily led by men at the time. Born Diane Halfin in Belgium to a mother who was a Holocaust survivor, von Furstenberg was told from a young age that “fear is not an option” and learned to embrace her otherness as a Jewish girl in the homogenous, non-Jewish community she grew up in. After marrying Egon von Furstenberg, a German prince and member of the jet set whose family balked at Diane’s Jewish heritage, von Furstenberg was determined to launch her fashion line and have a career and identity of her own, refusing to be reduced to her husband’s title or seen as just a socialite wife, even if his social and financial capital certainly did not hurt when it came to launching a brand new business. When the couple separated in 1972, just three years after marrying and having two children together (they eventually officially divorced in 1983), von Furstenberg saw the break as a pivotal moment in shaping her as both a designer and a person; two years later, she designed the wrap dress to international acclaim.

Read more: 10 Questions with Diane von Furstenberg

“I became the woman I wanted to be,” she says of the divorce in the documentary. “I was in control of my destiny, I was in charge of my children, I was in charge of my life, I was in charge of my business, I was a woman in charge.” 

When von Furstenberg first debuted the wrap dress in a full-page advertisement featuring herself wearing the garment for Women’s Wear Daily in 1974, she included the tag line: “Feel like a woman, wear a dress!” The message of the ad was clear: being an empowered woman didn’t have to mean shying away from femininity or sex appeal—it was about defining who you wanted to be as a woman for yourself, on your terms. Indeed, for many, the appeal of the wrap dress, both then and now, lies within the spirit of the DVF woman, who could fearlessly exude both an independent sensibility and glamor, arguably in the mold of von Furstenberg herself, who took as much pleasure in partying at Studio 54 as she has in leading her brand or doing philanthropic work.

Read more: Diane von Furstenberg’s Hero Has Nothing to Do With Fashion

It’s clear that von Furstenberg’s unapologetic approach to both life and style resonated with women; within the first year of the dress’s release, von Furstenberg was producing 25,000 of them per week. By 1976, she had sold one million wrap dresses and appeared on the cover of Newsweek, making her one of the first female designers to find commercial success on this scale. And the influence of the DVF wrap dress has endured; from being memorably worn by actor Cybill Shepherd in 1976’s Taxi Driver to being sported by the most famous women in the world—Michelle Obama, Kate Middleton, Oprah Winfrey, Madonna—the wrap dress has remained a timeless and beloved part of the modern woman’s wardrobe for half a century.

“I remember being a young reporter saving up for a Diane von Furstenberg wrap dress,” Winfrey shares in the documentary. “It was such a status symbol to have one of those dresses.”

For von Furstenberg, designing the wrap dress was a way to envision her future. She created the dress for the kind of woman she aspired to be: independent, ambitious, and above all, liberated. As she puts it in the documentary, her goal was not to create fashion history, but “to be a woman in charge, to be a free woman…fashion became a way to do it.” With the wrap dress, she did both.

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The best 4th of July deals include TVs, air conditioners, fire pits, and much more.

Amazon/Insider

The 4th of July is more than just an occasion for fireworks and grilling — it’s also a great time to save. Though it’s not the most popular of deal events, stores of every size and type love to offer an Independence Day sale. To help you browse the best ones going on now, I’ve rounded up the best 4th of July sales below.

Some of the best sales we’re seeing right now include Ikea’s Midsummer Sale, which offers select pieces up to 50% off, and REI’s Outlet Sale, which knocks prices down by up to 60%. Through July 11, the Steam Deck handheld gaming console also comes with a rare 15% discount. Appliances are also seeing some great prices, with huge sales running from retailers and brands like The Home Depot, LG, and GE. 

Plenty more savings can be had this summer if you keep scrolling below. If your shopping isn’t urgent, be sure to watch for Amazon Prime Day on July 16 and 17. We’ll be here, covering everything the Amazon shopping day offers, including the best deals and how to shop.

The best 4th of July sales going on now

• Abt: Save on appliances and more through July 10
• Amazon: Get up to 43% off Amazon Echo devices
• Backcountry: Get up to 40% off through July 4
• Bed Bath & Beyond: Get up to 50% off rugs, outdoor furniture, and more
• Best Buy: Members can save through June 30 on video games, headphones, and more
• BioBidet: Get up to 40% off
• BioLite: Get 25% off sitewide
• Crocs: Get up to 50% off select styles
• GE: Get up to 40% off select appliances
• Happy Socks: Get 50% off almost everything
• Houzz: Get up to 80% off during the 4th of July Preview sale
• Ikea: Get up to 50% off select items during the Midsummer sale
• LG: Get up to 30% off appliances and up to 40% off select electronics
• Lowe’s: Save on appliances, furniture, decor, and more
• MattressFirm: Get up to 50% off select mattresses
• Naturepedic: Get 20% off sitewide with the promo code JULY4
• REI: Get up to 60% off REI Outlet through June 29
• Rumpl: Get 40% off Original Puffy Blankets
• Solo Stove: Get up to $150 off with the promo code SAVEMORE
• Steam: Get 15% off the Steam Deck LCD Models through July 11
• The Home Depot: Save on appliances, tools, furniture, and more
• Wayfair: Get up to 50% off during the Big Outdoor sale
• Whirlpool: Save up to $500 with select purchases

Appliances including air conditioners and outdoor fire pits are down to excellent prices for the 4th of July.

BioLite

The best 4th of July appliance and grilling deals

 Independence Day is a popular time for big-box retailers like The Home Depot and Lowe’s to offer great appliance discounts. In time for the warming weather, I’m seeing some great price drops on air conditioner picks from our guides to the best portable air conditioners and the best air conditioner units.

The TCL QM8 is amongst some of the best TV deals we’re seeing for Independence Day.

TCL

The best 4th of July TV and gaming deals

Your first thought about the 4th of July may not be TVs and gaming, but regardless, there are some nice TV and gaming deals to shop for the occasion. Especially rare right now is a limited-time discount on the LCD Steam Deck, bringing the highly sought-after console down to under $300.

Rumpl’s Original Puffy Blanket is 40% off for a limited time.

Rumpl

The best 4th of July outdoor and camping deals

Several stores are welcoming the warm weather and end of the school year by dropping prices on outdoor essentials, from accessories to full-size tents. Some of the best sales include discounts from REI Outlet and Backcountry.

Find even more great summer savings in our roundup of the best early Prime Day deals.

Stock market bull

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• Leveraged ETFs that track the performance of Nvidia have soared this year.
• The leveraged funds focused on the AI giant have attracted $5 billion from investors.
• That amount is leagues beyond other single-stock ETFs that track mega-cap tech names.

A new type of exchange-traded fund has made waves over the past year: the leveraged single-stock ETF.

Instead of purchasing a basket of stocks like typical ETFs, these funds focus on a single name and add directional leverage to them, which can juice returns in a big way.

The T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF is up 425% year-to-date. That’s after Nvidia’s 16% correction over the past few days, during which leveraged bets on the chip maker soured, with the fund plunging 30% during the sell-off.

These funds are meant to be short-term day trading instruments, given the amount of leverage that they take on. Yet, retail investors are getting in on the action as well.

The r/LETFs forum on Reddit has 27,000 members, and a recent post asked if one of the Nvidia-focused ETFs is a good “buy and hold.”

“I’ve put some money in NVDL for almost 3 months now. The returns are exceptional but is it a good ETF to hold for a long time?” a Reddit user asked.

The GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA ETF, the T-REX 2X Long Nvidia Daily Target ETF, and the Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares ETF have amassed a collective $5 billion in assets under management.

In the ETF world, those are huge numbers, and momentum in Nvidia stock over the past year has helped catapult this particular class of ETFs into the big leagues.

However, that success hasn’t exactly translated into the other single-stock leveraged ETFs that target popular mega-cap technology stocks.

For example, the three ETFs that offer double the bullish leverage for shares of Apple have attracted a combined $157 million in assets, while all of the bullish leveraged ETFs that target Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft have attracted a combined $444 million in assets.

The Tesla-focused single-stock ETFs are the only others that have been able to reach the billion-dollar AUM milestone.

The T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF, the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares, and the GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF have a combined $1.5 billion in assets under management.

But as the long Nvidia ETFs emphasize the potential upside in the leveraged ETFs, bullish Tesla-focused funds have highlighted the opposite

The Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares ETF is down 70% since its record high reached in August 2022. Tesla stock, meanwhile, is down 37% over the same time period.

Increase in COVID-19 cases expected this summer  WWLP.com

Global patterns of rebound to normal RSV dynamics following COVID-19 suppression – BMC Infectious Diseases  BMC Infectious Diseases