Day: June 11, 2024

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• The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in its next decision on Wednesday.
• It follows a strong jobs report and still-high inflation.
• It’ll likely take longer for the Fed to cut interest rates given recent economic data.

Americans shouldn’t expect interest rate cuts to head their way anytime soon.

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, and following a hot jobs report, there’s a strong chance rates will once again remain steady. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, which estimates the likelihood the Federal Reserve will change interest rates based on market predictions, there’s a 99.4% chance rates will stay where they are as of Monday.

While the FOMC forecast three interest rate cuts this year in its December projections, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated throughout the year that nothing is set in stone, and the nation’s central bank is willing to hold out as long as necessary until it feels confident the economy has cooled down enough.

“The first quarter in the United States was notable for its lack of further progress on inflation,” Powell said during a panel in Amsterdam in May.

“We did not expect this to be a smooth road, but these were higher than I think anybody expected,” Powell added. “What that has told us is that we’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”

The Consumer Price Index increased 3.4% for the 12 months ending April, which means it’s still elevated. The next CPI report will be published on Wednesday morning. And the US labor market saw some strength in May — the US economy added 272,000 jobs that month, which was way above economists’ expectations.

“We have a very interesting labor market,” Julia Pollak, the chief economist for ZipRecruiter, told Business Insider. “It’s not the old normal. It’s the new normal where employers are slower to fire, slower to hire, and workers are slower to switch jobs. That could be both a good thing and a bad thing.

“It may be bad, partly, because it is driven in part by uncertainty and fear and high interest rates holding back activity,” Pollak added. “But, it’s good in other ways because some of it has to do with the fact that jobs got better during the pandemic.”

The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.0% in May; the last time it was this rate was back in January 2022. Nick Bunker, the economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said May’s rate is “still quite low historically.”

Still, Joseph Briggs, an economist at Goldman Sachs, told Business Insider that while rate cuts “have been delayed somewhat by the stickier Q1 inflation, we do think that we’re still on track two this year starting in September.”

Powell previously outlined what it would take to cut rates. During May’s press conference following the FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady, Powell said there are two paths that would give the Fed enough confidence to cut rates: more data to show inflation is getting closer to the Fed’s 2% target or an “unexpected weakening in the labor market.”

“If we did have a path where inflation proves more persistent than expected, and where the labor market remains strong but inflation is moving sideways, and we’re not gaining greater confidence, that would be a case in which it could be appropriate to hold off on rate cuts,” Powell said.

David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, also told BI last week two rate cuts could happen this year.

“I think that there’ll be enough softness and coolness in the economy for them to begin to cut rates this year,” Kelly said. “And if I had to bet, I bet that we will get two rate cuts, one in September and one in December.”

Some Democratic lawmakers have been pushing the Fed to cut rates and give Americans some breathing room, especially after the European Central Bank cut rates earlier in June for the first time in five years. Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen, and John Hickenlooper pointed to the ECB’s actions as a sign that it’s time for the US central bank to follow suit in a letter to Powell on Monday.

“The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates highs continues to widen the rate gap between Europe and the U.S, as the lower interest rates could push the dollar higher, tightening financial conditions,” they wrote, adding: “You have kept interest rates too high for too long: it is time to cut rates.”

LinkedIn Team at Grace Hopper Celebration Conference

• Nandita Gupta became an accessibility product manager at Microsoft after starting her career in a factory.
• Inspired by her grandfather’s loss of sight, she returned to school and paid her way with scholarships.
• After connecting with a Microsoft recruiter, she landed a job paying double what she used to make.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Nandita Gupta, an accessibility product manager at Microsoft in Redmond, Washington. It has been edited for length and clarity.

I’m an accessibility product manager at Microsoft. I have electrical engineering and human-computer interaction degrees, and my internship experiences were in manufacturing and robotics research. I decided to pursue human-centered computing with a focus on manufacturing as a career.

I worked as a process controls engineer at a factory that made baby wipes for three years before quitting and returning to school in the fall of 2019.

I started working as a product manager on internal tools at Microsoft in March 2021. Since December 2021, I’ve worked as an accessibility product manager for Accessibility Insights, a suite of products that helps developers code with accessibility in mind. I lead the product direction, plan future initiatives, and work with teams to create enjoyable and accessible experiences for developers.

Landing my first job at Microsoft doubled my income, and I’m doing what I always wanted to do — make an impact.

In 2019, I found myself at a crossroads as a process controls engineer

As a young girl, I saw my grandfather lose his eyesight, which left an indelible mark on my career choices. I yearned for a purpose beyond manufacturing and dreamed of helping people like my grandfather. There came a moment in my manufacturing job when I asked myself, “What am I doing? What happened to helping people like Grandpa?”

I took a leap of faith and left my stable job to pursue my passion for accessibility. I invested my savings into a single semester of graduate school with plans to apply for scholarships and assistantships, a decision that was both terrifying and exhilarating.

I was determined to apply for every scholarship to earn my degree. When my bank balance headed toward zero, I secured a graduate assistantship and received my first scholarship. In February 2020, I earned the Google Lime Scholarship, worth $10,000, which covered the rest of my graduate program.

As they told me I had been awarded that scholarship over the phone, I cried tears of relief. I had been sinking into depression the previous few months and was consumed by financial worries. Receiving this scholarship was one of the most emotional moments of my life.

The COVID-19 pandemic added new uncertainty

My journey to Microsoft was not easy, but I wouldn’t change anything about it.

When the pandemic hit, the summer internship I had lined up was canceled, and my job prospects seemed bleak. I tried to connect with companies and finally connected with a Microsoft recruiter at a virtual networking event. I shared my passion for accessibility and inclusion with the recruiter, and they said it was something they needed at the company.

The meeting led to a quick screening with HR, followed by a four-round interview loop and, finally, a job offer. Taking the Microsoft job doubled my earnings from my last job — my annual income was around $75,000 in manufacturing, and the move to Microsoft brought my total compensation to over $170,000. My work schedule is flexible, and I typically work around 50 hours a week.

Accessibility resonates deeply with me

Accessibility is not just personal — it’s a fundamental human right. My mission is to inspire others to design and deliver products that are accessible and inclusive, ensuring individuals like my grandfather feel seen and valued.

One of the most impactful accessibility initiatives I’ve been involved in is my collaboration with Zoo Atlanta as a graduate researcher. Our team crafted an inclusive experience for Zoo Atlanta visitors, particularly emphasizing those with visual impairments.

Another exciting project I worked on was Shifting Left to Get Accessibility Right at Microsoft. The case study showcases the importance of proactive accessibility and how the organization implemented a culture of accessibility.

Don’t leave a single stone unturned in your pursuit of your dream

It’s important to embrace a life-long learning mindset. When trying to pivot my career, I used resources like TED Talks, the Nasdaq Entrepreneurial Center, and MasterClass to gain insights from experts. I then gave my own TEDx Talk through the TEDx Georgia Tech organization.

It’s better to have tried and failed than to never have tried at all. Every decision you make will teach you valuable lessons, and even if you don’t end up where you originally intended, there will be something to gain.

Have you doubled your income by pivoting your career and want to share your story? Email Lauryn Haas at lhaas@businessinsider.com.

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Lin, who has published several books documenting the lives of gay men, said he was supposed to promote his works at a book fair in China’s Nanjing City on May 31. But less than half an hour after he began to set up his booth, seven or eight strangers came up to start taking photos of his books and soon they called the police to take Lin away.  

“The police first went back to my hotel room for another round of search and took me and a staff from the book fair to the police station,” Lin told VOA in a phone interview, adding that the police told him he would be detained for 24 hours for “spreading obscene images.”

“They took away my phone, put me in handcuffs, performed a strip search on me, and collected my fingerprints and blood samples,” he said. 

During the questioning, the police asked Lin a series of personal questions, including his sexual orientation, details about his family, why he photographed gay men, and why he decided to join the book fair. “The police then sent me back to a room and I was detained for several hours with other people,” Lin recalled.

He was eventually released around midnight, but the police confiscated most of his works. “They told me that I was detained because the subjects of my works aren’t appropriate for public display,” he told VOA, adding that the police took away anything related to LGBTQ topics.  

Lin isn’t the only Taiwanese briefly detained in China in recent weeks. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which oversees cross-strait relations, revealed on June 6 that a Taiwanese citizen was taken away by Chinese police and detained for several days while traveling with a tour group in the southern province of Fujian.

The council’s spokesperson Liang Wen-jie said this is the first time a member of a Taiwanese tour group was detained in China and the individual, whose identity remains undisclosed, was released a few days after his tour group returned to Taiwan.

Chiu Chui-cheng, the head of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, urged Taiwanese people to be aware of their safety and carefully assess the potential risks if they plan to travel to China, Hong Kong, or Macau.  

The Chinese government hasn’t publicly commented on the two cases and VOA has reached out to China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which manages cross-strait relations, for comment.

Increased security risks

The detentions come as China passed a series of laws aimed at safeguarding national security since last year. Last July, China revised its anti-espionage law that gives authorities more power to punish what they view as threats to national security. In March, China’s rubber-stamp parliament vowed to adopt several security-related laws in 2024. 

Some analysts say the detention of the two Taiwanese reflects China’s growing concern about Taiwan potentially pursuing independence under President Lai Ching-te’s leadership and Beijing’s attempt to stop this trend.

“Beijing’s efforts to enact a series of new laws related to national security show that they believe it’s necessary to roll out more forceful measures to safeguard their core interests,” said Hung Chin-fu, a political scientist at National Cheng Kung University in Taiwan.   

Against this backdrop, other experts say Taiwanese people will face greater risks when traveling to China. “With the counter-espionage law and the national security law, there has been an expansion in the range of activities that could bring in law enforcement action in [China,]” Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, told VOA in a written response.

In his view, citizens from countries or places that have higher tension with China may face higher risks of being targeted by Chinese law enforcement. “See the earlier detentions of Australians [and] Canadians,” Chong said, adding that this means Taiwanese people will also face greater risks in China as tensions between Beijing and Taipei continue to rise.

Hung in Taiwan thinks this trend will create a chilling effect in Taiwan and deter some Taiwanese from traveling to China. “Since there is almost no guarantee of personal safety, any Taiwanese person thinking about traveling to China needs to carefully assess whether it’s worth taking the risks or not,” Hung said.

Some Taiwanese activists say the two recent cases reflect the lack of transparency to know where the red lines are,” said Lee Ming-che, a Taiwanese activist sentenced to five years in prison on subversion charges in 2017 by a Chinese court.

Taiwanese photographer Lin said the experience has convinced him that the risks of traveling to China are simply too high for artists like him, who focus on subjects considered inappropriate by the Chinese authorities.

“I don’t think I will consider traveling to China anytime soon because I’m worried I could be targeted if they arrest me under a different crime,” he told VOA, adding that his experience makes him believe that China is an unfriendly place to LGBTQ artists like him.

As China prepares to hold the annual Straits Forum in the coastal city of Xiamen on June 15, Hung thinks both sides of the Taiwan Strait are unlikely to reduce the increasingly heightened tension through the meeting.

“While China will try to continue influencing some Taiwanese people who favor deepening cross-strait exchanges, the effect of their influence campaign will be limited because the overall trend of cross-strait relations is still deteriorating,” he told VOA.

“A new Cold War is forming between the Chinese government and the Taiwanese government under the leadership of the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party,” Hung said.