Day: March 20, 2024

The Region in Brief  Armenian Weekly

Pashinyan meets with locals in Voskepar during his visit to Tavush (photo by the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia)

YEREVAN—NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s visit to Armenia comes amidst heightened tensions following Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s announcement that he will surrender four villages in the Tavush province demanded by Azerbaijan. The move, framed as an attempt to avoid war, has sparked concern both domestically and internationally.

Pashinyan’s recent statement stands in stark contradiction to his announcement made during a three-hour press briefing last week. At that time, he categorically stated that there had been no discussions regarding the transfer of the four villages in the Tavush region.

Pashinyan justified the decision during a meeting with residents of Voskepar, Baganis and nearby settlements on March 18, citing the imperative to prevent conflict escalation. He stated that adjusting the Armenian border in these areas was necessary to ensure the safety of the villages and prevent the outbreak of war. 

“Our policy is that we must not allow war to start,” Pashinyan said. 

“In this situation, it’s better for us to stand on our border and put forward demands for them to leave our territory than to stand beyond our border while knowing that they will use it as a target,” the PM continued.

Critics argue that this move represents a significant concession to Azerbaijan and raises questions about Armenia’s commitment to defending its territorial integrity.

Pashinyan’s comments shed light on the ongoing border demarcation negotiations, in which Armenia seems poised to acquiesce to Azerbaijani demands without asserting its own interests. The PM outlined the process by which the border would be determined, emphasizing a potential resolution in the Baghanis to Berkaber area.

In a startling admission, Pashinyan also revealed a contrast in negotiation strategies between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While Armenia seeks a comprehensive solution, Azerbaijan insists on regaining control of territories before engaging in broader discussions. 

Pashinyan’s remarks also suggest that Armenia may relinquish control of these villages to Azerbaijan without demanding the return of territories lost in the past, such as Berkaber village’s extensive lands seized by Azerbaijan in the 1990s and large swathes of territory in southern Armenia captured in 2021 and 2022. 

Pashinyan’s assertion that Armenia’s primary goal is to avoid conflict rings hollow in the face of what appears to be a one-sided capitulation. By prioritizing the security of specific villages over broader national interests, Pashinyan risks betraying Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The announcement comes as Azerbaijan has demanded the immediate surrender of the four villages on the border of Tavush province. Pashinyan’s assertion that these villages are not within the recognized territory of Armenia has drawn scrutiny and prompted fears of further territorial encroachment by Azerbaijan.

Vahe Ghalumyan, a Civil Contract parliamentarian and former governor of Tavush, made a controversial statement further fueling criticism of Pashinyan’s administration. He claimed that there are no Armenian homes in the disputed area along the Tavush region’s border. 

“There are no Armenian settlements there. They were Azerbaijani villages that came under the control of the Republic of Armenia in the 1990s, but no Armenians lived there. I am not sure that there is a house there. If there are, they will receive a solution from the state. All this is part of the peace process,” Ghalumyan said.

Ghalumyan’s statement supporting Pashinyan’s recent announcement has intensified public outrage and deepened suspicions regarding the motives behind Pashinyan’s administration.

Members of the opposition “Hayastan” faction of the National Assembly have expressed deep concern over Pashinyan’s statements made during his visit to Tavush. They argue that Pashinyan’s remarks confirm fears that the Armenian government is unilaterally conceding to Azerbaijani demands in ongoing negotiations.

The opposition faction highlighted several troubling aspects of Pashinyan’s statements. They criticized the decision to pursue partial demarcation and delimitation without a comprehensive agreement and reciprocal actions, warning that this approach favors Azerbaijan’s interests and weakens Armenia’s defense capabilities along the border.

Moreover, the opposition faction raised concerns about the potential loss of control over strategic roads, which could significantly heighten security risks for Armenia. The villages in Tavush are located along a main highway connecting Armenia to Georgia and the pipeline that supplies Armenia with natural gas from Russia. The “Hayastan” faction argued that continuously conceding to Azerbaijan’s demands under the threat of war not only fails to deter further aggression but also emboldens Azerbaijan to pursue more aggressive actions in the future.

The opposition faction also criticized the neglect of international best practices in demarcation and delimitation. They emphasized that any actions that compromise Armenia’s sovereignty or involve the relinquishment of territories to another state constitute grave crimes against the nation.

Garnik Danielyan of the “Hayastan” faction highlighted the direct threat posed to surrounding villages, including kindergartens and schools, should these territories fall under Azerbaijani control. He emphasized the risk of population displacement and urged resistance against the decision to hand over the villages.

Regarding whether or not Pashinyan would reverse this decision, Danielyan suggested that without strong opposition from residents and the public, the prime minister is unlikely to face any consequences.

According to Sergey Melkonyan, an international political scientist, the current leadership has instilled a pervasive atmosphere of fear, equating any opposition to war with inevitable defeat. This departure from Armenia’s past, where victory was the norm, has been evident throughout the tenure of the present administration, marked by defeats in 2020 and 2022 and a notable absence of involvement in the 2023 conflict that saw the fall of Artsakh.

Melkonyan observes a troubling trend towards incremental capitulation. Initially, discussions centered on compromises in Artsakh to “maintain peace.” However, the ambit of concessions appears to be expanding, with talks now broaching areas such as Tavush.

Moreover, unsettling proposals loom regarding the violation of Armenia’s sovereignty through constitutional amendments and territorial handovers. Such moves not only flout established international legal norms but also set dangerous precedents.

In response to these looming threats, Melkonyan suggests reinforcing defensive positions, particularly in Tavush, to deter aggression. Additionally, Melkonyan advised seeking alliances with nations interested in regional stability to conduct military exercises in Tavush and beyond, which could provide a deterrent against further hostilities.

Melkonyan also called for urging Azerbaijan to withdraw from strategically occupied positions within Armenian territory. However, doubts persist regarding the current government’s commitment to preserving sovereignty and territorial integrity, fueling concerns that unilateral concessions or deliberate territorial surrenders may loom on the horizon.

Pashinyan’s recent remarks have not gone unnoticed by international figures in the region. Konstantin Zatulin, a deputy of the Russian State Duma, has joined the chorus of critics, accusing Pashinyan of prioritizing personal interests over those of Armenia. 

Zatulin underscored the strategic importance of the four villages in the Tavush region, emphasizing their role in Armenia’s transit routes to Iran and Georgia. He condemned Pashinyan for allegedly neglecting Armenia’s defense while capitulating to the demands of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

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Armenia

A coalition of prominent Armenian human rights experts, including Gegham Stepanyan, Arman Tatoyan, Artak Beglaryan, Siranush Sahakyan and Ara Ghazaryan, has issued a stark warning against Armenia’s potential withdrawal from lawsuits against Azerbaijan in international forums. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan has suggested that Armenia is prepared to withdraw from such legal proceedings if a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is signed. The human rights experts stressed the critical role these lawsuits play in holding Azerbaijan accountable for its violations against Armenians and seeking justice for victims. They also highlighted the indispensable nature of legal proceedings in safeguarding rights in Artsakh and achieving lasting peace. The experts argued that withdrawal would validate Azerbaijan’s crimes and pave the way for further violations, urging the exploration of new legal avenues for justice, including potential action through the International Criminal Court.

Artsakh

The Armenian government has published new statistics regarding Armenians forcibly displaced from Artsakh to Armenia following Azerbaijan’s military assault in September 2023. According to data disclosed in response to a written inquiry from Sputnik Armenia, 7,825 individuals from Artsakh have left Armenia and have not returned in nearly five months. Between September 2023 to March 4, 2024, a total of 13,619 people with Artsakh registration left Armenia, with only 5,794 returning. Presently, Armenia hosts 101,848 displaced Armenians from Artsakh, including 30,000 children, with 72,626 residing in provincial areas and the remainder in the capital city Yerevan.

Russia

In the Russian presidential elections, incumbent president Vladimir Putin has been re-elected to serve another six year term with an overwhelming majority, securing 87.28-percent of the votes, according to the Central Electoral Commission of the Russian Federation. Voter turnout stood at 74.22-percent. The elections have come under harsh criticism from the U.S. and other Western leaders, with harsh suppression of opposition voices and little transparency in the electoral process. The election follows the death of prominent opposition leader Alexei Navalny in an Arctic penal colony in February. 

Iran

Iran and Azerbaijan have engaged in discussions concerning the collaborative restoration of the Khudaferin bridge, a vital link connecting the two nations. The talks, spearheaded by Iran’s Minister of Energy Ali Akbar Mehrabyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Parviz Shahbazov, centered on several key initiatives aimed at bolstering bilateral cooperation in the energy sector. Among the topics discussed were the construction projects of the “Khudaferin” and “Gez Galas” hydro nodes, along with the Ordubadi hydropower plant. Additionally, the parties explored the potential establishment of an energy bridge linking Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia, as well as prospects for electricity exchange and transit.

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