A New Chapter Of Cross-Strait Relations Following The 2024 Taiwanese Elections – Analysis

By Maximilian G. Mooradian

Lifting the Eight-Year Curse and the Opinion of the Taiwanese;

(FPRI) — Since the first democratic elections were held in 1996, no political party has ever won the Taiwanese presidential election more than two consecutive times until now, with the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP’s) new President Lai Ching-te successfully breaking the eight-year curse of Taiwanese politics with 40 percent of the vote. This outcome shows how many in Taiwan feel about China and the DPP’s idea of an independent national identity, with the Pew Research Center reporting that around 67 percent of the population identify as only Taiwanese, 28 percent believe they are Chinese and Taiwanese, and 3 percent believing they are entirely Chinese.

While studying abroad in Taiwan, I learned different perspectives on why Lai won the presidential election and why the DPP lost in the Legislative Yuan. The most common response I recorded when asking why Lai won the presidential election was: “When I was looking at all of the candidates that were running, I chose Lai not only for his stance on China but also that he is much more capable of running the country than his opponents.”

This response aligns with polling conducted by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation in June 2023, in which Lai Ching-te received an approval rating of 56 percent, the highest among all 2024 presidential candidates. However, the most common response that I recorded when asking why the DPP lost in the Legislative Yuan was: “It’s good that the DPP cares a lot about our cross-strait relationship with China, but they do not care enough about our daily struggles regarding housing prices, unemployment, and stagnant wages.” This aligns with Taiwan’s election and democratization study polling that asked which issues should be the most important to the next president: 34.2 percent of respondents said economic development should be the top priority over cross-strait relations, which only received 18.1 percent. In this article, I will be taking a closer look at how China tried to interfere in Taiwan’s elections, the opinions of the Taiwanese people, the current political state of Taiwan, and what Taiwan’s future with China will likely be.

China’s Election Interference

China’s interests are in direct opposition to what Lai and the DPP stand for, which is why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) attempts to convince Taiwanese voters to stand with the Kuomintang (KMT) instead of the DPP through;political, economic, and social pressures. China’s reasoning is straightforward;regarding which side they chose, since the DPP favors independence from China, while the KMT favors bringing Taiwan closer to China. Also, the independent sentence that says China has made it clear that it supports the KMT over the DPP, with the CCP attempting to convince Taiwanese voters to stand with the KMT through;political, economic, and social pressures was not meant to be included in the final draft because it has been rephrased as the first sentence of the second paragraph.

China has made it clear that it supports the KMT over the DPP, with the CCP attempting to convince Taiwanese voters to stand with the KMT through;political, economic, and social pressures.

An example of political pressure was when the Beijing Taiwan Affairs Office called Lai a “stubborn advocate of Taiwan independence, a disruptor of cross-strait peace, and an instigator of potential conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.” An example of economic pressure occurred hours after Lai was announced as the DPP presidential candidate, with China’s Ministry of Commerce announcing an investigation into Taiwan’s trade restrictions on 2,400 items to apply economic pressure on the DPP. This investigation ended on the eve of the election, with China assuring that the investigation would go away if Lai were defeated.

An example of social pressure was when the CCP used social media platforms such as TikTok, a Chinese-owned app with around 1.218 billion active users, to spread misinformation about the Taiwanese national elections. This social media app regularly produces content that portrays KMT and TPP candidates positively while treating DPP candidates negatively, going as far as removing pro-DPP content from the platform. This has already been proven by several sources, with Doublethink Lab stating that during the 2024 election, there were around 10,141 pieces of recorded suspicious information of China spreading disinformation coming not only from TikTok but also from YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, X, Weibo, and many others. Some posts even went as far as to insinuate that the DPP worked alongside the United States to build bioweapons. The amount of disinformation the CCP is spreading is just another example of how it will do anything and everything it can to influence as many people as possible to achieve its geopolitical goals.

Split Election Victory

The DPP’s third-term win was a significant achievement; however, Lai won by only 6.5 percent against “KMT candidate” Hou Yu-ih, compared to the 2020 election in which Tsai Ing-wen defeated her KMT opponent by more than 15 percent. Another area where Lai and the DPP fell short was in the Legislative Yuan, where they lost the majority to the KMT. The last time Taiwan had a government in which the party of the president did not hold a majority in the legislature was in 2008, so despite the presidential victory, the Legislative Yuan elections tell a much different story. 

The Legislative Yuan is the legislative branch of the Taiwanese government, with 113 delegates across all of Taiwan’s provinces. Seventy-three of these seats are regionally based seats where candidates are elected by receiving the most votes; thirty-four seats are allocated by party where a party’s total vote determines the number of seats they are assigned, with half of these seats being reserved for women; and six seats are given to indigenous candidates from different communities across Taiwan. In this election cycle, the DPP lost ten seats, totaling fifty-one; the KMT gained fourteen seats, totaling fifty-two; the TPP gained three seats, totaling eight, and the Independent party in Taiwan gained two seats for a total of two. The best way to summarize the elections in Taiwan this year is that everyone is a winner, and everyone is a loser. This outcome gives the KMT a slight advantage but not the super-majority of fifty-seven that it wanted; however, the two independent candidates will likely support the KMT, which does not come as a surprise since they were both a part of the KMT in the last Legislative Yuan elections.

Another roadblock the DPP and Lai will have to confront is that the TPP holds eight total seats, so if the DPP wishes to pass any legislation, it will need to compromise with this third party, which seems unlikely since it prefers aligning with the KMT. The TPP now has the ability to pass and block legislation, giving the party the most influence it has ever had since its creation in 2019 by TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je. This situation provides an enormous challenge for the DPP in passing legislation, especially regarding Taiwan’s national security against China, with the KMT and the TPP already voting against a provisionrequiring officials to seek permission before visiting China, Hong Kong, or Macau.

This legislation was introduced in response to seventeen KMT lawmakers visiting China to meet with CCP officials without notifying any DPP officials, which directly undermined Taiwan’s executive branch’s foreign policy. One of these meetings was with Wan Huning, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference—the fourth highest-ranked member in the Politburo Standing Committee—who many say is the voice of Xi Jinping’s political concepts and the Henry Kissinger of China. In the future, all Taiwanese parties should consult each other before making foreign policy decisions if the Taiwanese government hopes to be a less divisive and more cohesive body.

Opinions of the Taiwanese People;

My interactions in Taiwan have revealed a considerable difference in political views, each with its unique rationale for supporting the DPP, KMT, or TPP. This diversity underscores the complexity and depth of Taiwanese politics.

I have had several interactions with an independent scholar who supports the Green Party, which is what the;Democratic Progressive Party;is called in Taiwan, not only because this individual “believes that they are the best party to maintain the status quo, but also because they are the party that aligns the most with the;parameters;being set by the United States.” This independent scholsaid that “the reason Lai Ching-te won the presidential election against KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih was due to his;lack of experience;in cross-strait relations since he was a career police officer who focused on local politics.” Regarding the losses in the Legislative Yuan, this scholar responded that “in several cases, the KMT and TPP candidates;formed alliances;to secure a majority since both party’s ‘common goal’ was to replace the DPP.”

Regarding the Blue Party, better known as the;Kuomintang, I had several interactions with a National Taiwan University economics student who believes “the KMT will prevent war with China and bring stability to the Taiwan Strait.” He also thinks that “a closer relationship with China will provide economic opportunities with China that will bolster Taiwan’s economy.” A specific example was KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih’s;proposal;to build a bridge connecting Taiwan’s Kinmen Island to the Chinese city of Xiamen, which the Chinese government also later proposed. He believes that “the KMT lost the presidential election due to the KMT and the TPP not running together for the presidency.” Indeed, KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih and TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je were supposed to run together, but this;alliance shattered;less than one week before the deadline to register over a televised debate of who would be the presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate. He said, “The KMT had such success in the Legislative Yuan because people were tired of the;DPP-run legislature;for the past eight years and felt like their voices were not being heard.”

When it comes to the White Party or;Taiwan People’s Party, I have had several conversations with a National Taiwan University student who has only recently become interested in politics and believes that the TPP is the way forward since it can balance two extremes in the Taiwan Strait. He likes the TPP since it is “a;third option;for Taiwanese voters, and Ko Wen-je is a straightforward politician with innovative ideas that are a voice for the younger generation.” This line of thought aligns with the fact that Ko Wen-je is the most followed Taiwanese politician on social media, with a follower count of;1.2 million;on Instagram. The only other politician coming close is the former president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, who currently has one million. He believes that “the TPP’s victory in the Legislative Yuan reflects the message that young people are tired of the DPP and the KMT not focusing on issues that matter to them, such as;housing and low wages.”

Taiwan’s Future with China

The DPP’s recent;failure;to pass legislation meant to improve national security due to the KMT-TPP alliance shows how truly divided Taiwan’s government currently is. This lack of cooperation has been very visible domestically and abroad with a viral video of legislators from all three parties;exchanging physical blows;in the Legislative Yuan days before President Lai’s inauguration. This altercation was the direct result of;political reforms;proposed by the KMT and the TPP to grant parliament greater oversight of the executive branch, with the most controversial new power being to criminalize officials who make false statements in parliament. This reform bill, which takes power away from the executive branch and gives it to the legislative branch, recently passed the legislative yuan. It has been met with around 70,000 protesters outside the legislative yuan expressing their contempt for this decision made by the KMT and the TPP.; As it stands, Taiwan’s government is in a state of disarray that will most certainly not go unnoticed by its allies and its adversaries.

On the other hand, China is united in its aims to invade Taiwan, with the recent announcement during its National People’s Congress on March 5, 2024, that defense spending would increase;by 7.2 percent;for 2024 to a total of 1.7 trillion yuan (U.S. $236 billion). This increase in spending is part of Xi Jinping’s plan to have a;modern military force by 2027, which will mark the;centennial of the founding;of the People’s Liberation Army. This timeline would make sense for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, with the head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. John Aquilino, saying, “China will be ready for an;invasion of Taiwan by 2027.”

Compared to China’s political unity, Taiwan’s political division does not generate reassurance in the wake of increasing levels of aggression from the CCP. It is understandable when political parties don’t agree on specific issues, but when it comes to national security, bipartisanship at all levels of government is essential to protecting its people from harm and should always come before partisan disagreements. In the future, the DPP, KMT, and TPP must work together to successfully pass legislation to increase Taiwan’s military capabilities, increase cooperation with its Western allies, and continue doing everything possible to protect Taiwan from China’s grasp.

• About the author: Maximilian G. Mooradian is pursuing his B.A. in International Relations and a Minor in Chinese at American University’s School of International Service in the Class of 2025. He is interning with the FPRI Asia Program for the fall of 2023 and the spring of 2024
• Source: This article was published by FPRI