The ‘Trumpian revolution’: what will Trump do (and how) once back in power

The election winner has five objectives: abandon Ukraine, lower taxes for the wealthy, fill the Administration with his loyalists, increase tariffs, and deport 11.5 million migrants

One of the differences between Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign and the subsequent ones, especially this one that has just ended, is the complete disappearance of the president-elect’s worker-oriented rhetoric. In 2016, he said he would end the carried interest that allows billionaires in private equity funds to pay only a 20% tax rate on their financial investments, claimed that hedge fund managers “are like committing murders and getting away with it” (on August 23, 2015), and to justify his attacks on Barack Obama, he multiplied the U.S. unemployment rate by 10, from 4% to 40%.

These redistributive plans were nothing but electoral rhetoric from a candidate who stated that “we cannot afford” to raise the federal minimum wage, which has been frozen since 2009. In fact, Trump appointed those same financiers he abhorred to his cabinet, including “the king of foreclosures” (Steve Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary) and “the king of bankruptcies” (Wilbur Ross, Commerce Secretary).

In this 2024 campaign, Trump’s program has been more elusive. His objectives are five: isolationism, which includes abandoning Ukraine; tax cuts for higher incomes and companies; taking over the Public Administration by his loyalists; tariffs; and deportation of 11.5 million undocumented immigrants.

The first three parts of that triad are more likely to be carried out, the fourth is in an intermediate situation, and the fifth presents more difficulties.

Trump can reach an agreement with Russia, which would impose on Ukraine, for that country to cede Crimea and all the territories that Putin’s forces have occupied in the wars of 2015 and the one that began in 2022. Certainly, with a Republican Senate, it seems almost impossible for the U.S. to approve more military aid to Kiev, so Trump and Putin will have an excellent bargaining chip over Ukraine. But it would be enough for Putin and Trump to sign it for it to take effect. In addition, Trump can easily veto Ukraine’s entry into NATO, and exert enough pressure on the EU so that it, showing its traditional ability to yield, prolongs the accession negotiations of Kiev.

Such an agreement would not be ratified by the Senate, as Republicans are far from having the 60 votes needed for approval in that chamber of 100 seats. But that is not a problem in itself. Also, there is an important issue: Trump does not like having to negotiate with Congress. He prefers to operate through executive orders, which reinforce his image of authority, even though they can be overturned by his successors.

Tax cuts may be a done deal. Senate Republicans would approve them, perhaps only for a limited period. And even if Democrats were to gain control of the House of Representatives, their majority would be so slim that Trump would have no trouble convincing them to approve, if not all of his tax plans, at least the majority of them.

This would mean extending the income tax cuts approved in Trump’s first term in 2017, which were set to expire in 2025. It is a tax cut that benefits higher incomes, further contributing to increasing the U.S. public deficit, which reached 7% of GDP this year. As for the Corporate Tax, the president-elect wants to lower it to 15% from the current 21%, where he himself set it after reducing it from a maximum rate of 39% in 2017 to 15%. That is the reason for the stock market rise this Wednesday, as the money that companies save on federal taxes will go towards dividends and share buybacks, increasing their value. Additionally, it will also increase the deficit.

To control the Public Administration, Trump only needs to issue a similar order to the one he launched in October 2020 – too late, as he lost the elections the following month – with the so-called Schedule F, which created a new category of officials who transitioned from technical roles to political positions of trust. This rule would increase the current number of political positions in the federal government from 4,000 to 30,000 and would be a decisive step in the politicization of the Administration following a model akin to Erdogan or Orban.

The issue of tariffs is more complicated. To raise them, as Trump proposes (20% with the entire planet Earth and 70% with China and 76% with Mexico), he needs Congress’s favorable vote. Such a steep increase is unlikely to be approved. However, he can use accusations of illegal trade practices or national security defense to raise tariffs in specific areas, from Spanish table olives to Chinese microprocessors, as he did in his first term.

Finally, there is the deportation of immigrants. Once again, it seems unlikely that Congress will approve additional funding, among other reasons because it would devastate the U.S. economy. But Trump can redirect funds from other Defense allocations, claiming that the country is being invaded. In any case, he cannot deport 11.5 million undocumented individuals simply because there would be no one to work in construction, clean floors, pick fruit, or cook in restaurants, including, according to many reports, those at his own Bedminster golf club near New York.