A new survey from Marist College released on Thursday showed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo gaining ground on Democratic mayoral nominee and frontrunner Zohran Mamdani — but it also indicates Mamdani is inching closer to securing majority support among voters.
The Marist poll, released at midnight Thursday, gives Mamdani a 15-point edge on Cuomo among likely voters with less than a week until the Nov. 4 general election and amid early voting. Cuomo has gained six points on Mamdani based on Marist’s last poll in September, taken while current Mayor Eric Adams was still in the race, which showed Mamdani held a 21% lead over Cuomo.
The survey of 1,134 adults, including 792 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 24-28, has Cuomo with 32% support, Republican Curtis Sliwa with 16%, and 3% still undecided among likely voters.
Two other surveys released this week — one from Suffolk University and the Quinnipiac University — both had Cuomo 10 points behind Mamdani, but gaining votes from previous surveys. Yet the new Marist poll bucks some trends in the Suffolk and Quinnipiac surveys.
For starters, the Marist poll also has Mamdani — a democratic socialist Queens Assembly member — closer to winning a majority in the three-way contest than other recent polls. It has him with 48% support among likely voters, compared to the other surveys, where he has registered between 43% and 44%.
And while the Suffolk and Quinnipiac polls had Cuomo with strong support among Republicans, nearly six in ten Republicans (59%) support Sliwa, while 33% of them back Cuomo, according to the poll.
That stands out in stark contrast to Wednesday’s Quinnipiac poll; Cuomo held a one-point advantage with Republicans over Sliwa, a data point his team sought to highlight. Cuomo has tried during the general election to win over Republican voters, arguing that electing a moderate Democrat like himself would be far better than allowing a democratic socialist like Mamdani to win.
The Marist poll comes amid ongoing early voting, with more than 300,000 New Yorkers having already cast their ballots, and preliminary data indicating that many of them are older — which would appear to be a promising sign for Cuomo.
Since Adams dropped out, Cuomo has appeared to pick up some support from his exit, as they have overlapping moderate constituencies.
The latest poll found that if Sliwa were to drop out, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo would shrink to 7 points — but he would still win 51% to 44%. Sliwa has repeatedly said he has no intention of dropping out.
Furthermore, with less than a week until Election Day and voters already turning out in droves to cast early ballots, it is unclear what effect Sliwa’s suspension of his campaign would have on the race, if any.
Voters are also more enthusiastic about Mamdani than his competitors, the Marist poll found. Fifty-seven percent of voters polled either have a very or somewhat favorable perception of Mamdani, while 37% view him unfavorably.
Cuomo is viewed either very or somewhat favorably by 40% of voters, the poll found. However, the majority, 55% regard him unfavorably.
