Day: July 1, 2024

While it’s true that, around this time in 1992, Bill Clinton was polling only 25% of the popular vote behind George HW Bush at 31% and Ross Perot at a whopping 39%, Clinton came back to win comfortably. It is also true that around this time in 1864, Abraham Lincoln was so concerned that his administration would not be returned to the White House that he had his cabinet sign a manifesto — that he would not permit them to read — promising to cooperate with the new president in bringing the war to a successful end. Lincoln nevertheless won comfortably.

History is replete with comforting examples of how underdog candidates came from behind to win (or rewin) the presidency. Many talking heads who oppose the absurd movement calling for Joe Biden to step down are fond of recalling these examples.

But those were different times with different circumstances. Clinton won in part because Perot dropped out of the race in July and voters who would have voted for him switched their vote to Clinton. By the time Perot returned to the fray in October he did so with a significantly crippled and mistrusted campaign. He did not reclaim the votes he so precipitously handed to Clinton. And Clinton won on that account.

In his calculations Lincoln did not consider the votes of soldiers in the field who were allowed to vote. They surprised everyone by voting for Lincoln in overwhelming numbers. Again, different times with different circumstances.

I tell you this not to discourage you, brothers and sisters, but to offer up my own reasons why I sincerely believe that Biden will win in November. I think he will win because of Roe v Wade. I think the repeal of Roe by the Trump SCOTUS is going to do for Biden what it did for Kansas. The presidential election will be the first national referendum on Roe since the SCOTUS repeal, and everybody is going to be shocked right down to their socks. Not only is Trump going to lose, he’s going to lose big.

One secret ingredient is going to be stealth voters. Those will include the women (and a few men) who will claim they are voting for Trump but who will secretly vote for Biden. They will add their voices to the huge blue wave of women and men who will not tolerate Trump’s promise to strip women of their reproductive rights. As already indicated, the naysayers are in for a big shock this November.

Moreover, people forget how quickly news fades. The so-called disaster of Thursday’s debate will become ancient history in a month, and new issues will crowd it out. And it’s not going to help Trump that in eleven days he is probably going to be sentenced to a prison term.

So let’s ignore the idiots who think Biden is going to drop out of the race, and concentrate on winning in November. I admit it’s going to be scary, but my confidence is justifiably high. And so should yours be. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe. Donate to Palmer Report

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