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Day: May 6, 2024
Cybersecurity maven Dmitri Alperovitch made big splashes by predicting Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and uncovering a Russian hack of the DNC. He’s now worrying about Xi Jinping’s evident war preparations. (Metis Strategy photo)
In December 2021, Dmitri Alperovitch famously predicted that Vladimir Putin would invade Ukraine—two months before he actually did. A veteran cybersecurity maven who co-founded CrowdStrike, the firm that uncovered the Russian hack of the Democratic National Committee, Alperovitch has now expanded his horizons, warning in a new book, World on the Brink, that China’s Xi Jinping is “likely” to invade Taiwan—and may do so as early as four years from now. It’s a war that he acknowledges could provoke a full scale military confrontation with the United States—a conflict that in some senses has already begun in what Alperovitch describes as a new Cold War. In an interview with SpyTalk, Alperovitch explained his reasoning as well as the nature of the China threat– including evidence of recent cyber espionage attacks by a Chinese military hacking group known as Volt Typhoon that may be more alarming than anybody realized. What follows is an edited transcript of the conversation.
Spytalk: So you start out the book with this nightmare scenario of a full blown Chinese invasion of Taiwan—gunships, guided missile destroyers, kamikaze drones as part of a meticulously coordinated attack on the island. Tell us why you think this is where things are headed?
Alperovitch: As you know, Michael, I was one of the first geopolitical analysts to have predicted that Putin was going to invade Ukraine months before it happened. And the reasons that I believe drove Putin to invade Ukraine—that convinced me back then that this war was almost inevitable—are exactly the same reasons that are playing out in the Indo Pacific and which are driving Xi Jinping to want to conquer Taiwan in his lifetime. Both of these authoritarian leaders are in their early 70s, looking at the twilight of their careers, looking at their legacies, looking at their longevity and power and their own mortality. And when you look at Putin, what drove him, I believe, is a distorted view of history. He did not believe that Ukraine was a nation. He believed it belonged to Russia. He thought it was Russia’s destiny and his personal destiny to bring it back, at least into Russia’s sphere of influence, if not under full occupation. The same thing you’re seeing in the Indo Pacific. Xi of course believes that Taiwan is not a state. It’s also a destiny of the Chinese Communist Party to take Taiwan because of course it is unfinished business since the end of that civil war in 1949, when Mao defeated Chiang Kai Shek, but didn’t fully defeat him, because he fled with 2 million nationals to Taiwan. So taking [Taiwan] has enormous symbolism for the Chinese Communist Party to really finish off that civil war and finally complete what Xi himself calls “a rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
Spytalk: But all this has been the case for decades now. What’s bringing this to the crisis level now that you’re suggesting it is?
Alperovitch: Well, in the case of both men, they’re also driven by ego and they want to be the ones to do it. And it’s not an accident that Putin invaded Ukraine when he did because he was looking at it again at the twilight of his career, 25 years in power, looking at how long he may stay in power, how long he may live and wanting to have that accomplishment in the history books, given to him and no one else. The same thing is how it’s playing out in China. Xi is very explicit that this problem of Taiwan cannot be a transition to future generations. He says this on multiple occasions. Well, again, Xi is 70. In 2027, he is up for another election as the leader of the Communist Party, and he’s very likely to win that election for another five year term that will end in 2032, when he’ll be 79. So I think in his mind, that window of likely 2028 to 2032 is going to be the opportunity for him to accomplish this long desired task…as the leader who will go into the history books, as the leader that is greater than Mao. So that is why I believe the next four to eight years are going to be very, very dangerous.
Spytalk: So as you point out in the book, in the past when American presidents were asked about the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, they have said that we would “help” Taiwan to defend herself. But President Biden has gone beyond that: When asked in 2022, whether the United States would defend Taiwan, he flatly said, “Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack.” Are we committed to a full scale war with China in the event of an invasion of Taiwan?
Alperovitch: We do not have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan. We do not have the legal commitment. And every time Biden says something like this—and he’s done it now four times—the White House staff points out that the policy that we call strategic ambiguity—essentially, we are not acknowledging or denying that we will come to Taiwan’s defense—remains in place. But there’s no question that the president is inherently changing that policy, if not officially, but certainly [it is being] transmitted to Beijing, transmitted to Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, that he wants to defend Taiwan.
The post Dmitri Alperovitch on the New Cold War with China first appeared on Trump And The FBI – The News And Times.
TEL AVIV, Israel — Israel ordered the local offices of Qatar’s Al Jazeera satellite news network to close Sunday, escalating a long-running feud between the broadcaster and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-line government as Doha-mediated cease-fire negotiations with Hamas hang in the balance.
The extraordinary order, which includes confiscating broadcast equipment, preventing the broadcast of the channel’s reports and blocking its websites, is believed to be the first time Israel has ever shuttered a foreign news outlet operating in the country.
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Al Jazeera went off Israel’s main cable and satellite providers in the hours after the order. However, its website and multiple online streaming links still operated Sunday.
The network has reported the Israeli-Hamas war nonstop since the militants’ initial cross-border attack Oct. 7 and has maintained 24-hour coverage in the Gaza Strip amid Israel’s grinding ground offensive that has killed and wounded members of its staff. While including on-the-ground reporting of the war’s casualties, its Arabic arm often publishes verbatim video statements from Hamas and other regional militant groups.
Read More: Palestinian Journalists Offer a Rare Glimpse Into Life in Gaza. But for How Long?
“Al Jazeera reporters harmed Israel’s security and incited against soldiers,” Netanyahu said in a statement. “It’s time to remove the Hamas mouthpiece from our country.”
Al Jazeera issued a statement vowing it will “pursue all available legal channels through international legal institutions in its quest to protect both its rights and journalists, as well as the public’s right to information.”
“Israel’s ongoing suppression of the free press, seen as an effort to conceal its actions in the Gaza Strip, stands in contravention of international and humanitarian law,” the network said. “Israel’s direct targeting and killing of journalists, arrests, intimidation and threats will not deter Al Jazeera.”
Read More: The Israel-Hamas War is Taking an Unprecedented and Deadly Toll on Journalists
The Israeli government has taken action against individual reporters over the decades since its founding in 1948, but broadly allows for a rambunctious media scene that includes foreign bureaus from around the world, even from Arab nations. It also blocked the foreign broadcasts of the Hezbollah-affiliated, Beirut-based Al Mayadeen news channel at the start of the war.
A law passed last month allows the government to take action against Al Jazeera, Netanyahu’s office said.
Israeli Communication Minister Shlomo Karhi later published footage online of authorities raiding a hotel room Al Jazeera had been broadcasting from in east Jerusalem, which the Palestinians hope to one day have for their future state. He said officials seized some of the channel’s equipment there.
“We finally are able to stop Al Jazeera’s well-oiled incitement machine that harms the security of the country,” Karhi said. His office said it would bar Al Jazeera from operating in Israel for at least 45 days, a measure that can be renewed.
The ban did not appear to affect the channel’s operations in the occupied West Bank or Gaza Strip, where Israel wields control but which are not sovereign Israeli territory.
The decision threatens to heighten tensions with Qatar at a time when the Doha government is playing a key role in mediation efforts to halt the war in Gaza, along with Egypt and the United States.
Qatar has had strained ties with Netanyahu in particular since he made comments suggesting that Qatar is not exerting enough pressure on Hamas to prompt it to relent in its terms for a truce deal. Qatar hosts Hamas leaders in exile in Doha.
Read More: Hamas Leader Says Israel Killing His Family Won’t Affect Ceasefire Negotiations
The sides appear to be close to striking a deal, but multiple previous rounds of talks have ended with no agreement.
In a statement Sunday, Hamas condemned the Israeli government order, calling on international organizations to take measures against Israel.
The Foreign Press Association in Israel criticized the order.
“With this decision, Israel joins a dubious club of authoritarian governments to ban the station,” it said. “This is a dark day for the media.” The New York-based Committee to Project Journalists similarly warned the move represented an “extremely alarming precedent for restricting international media outlets working in Israel.”
Omar Shakir, Human Rights Watch’s Israel and Palestine director, criticized the Israeli order as “an assault on freedom of the press.”
“Rather than trying to silence reporting on its atrocities in Gaza, the Israeli government should stop committing them,” he added.
Israel has long had a rocky relationship with Al Jazeera, accusing it of bias. Relations took a major downturn nearly two years ago when Al Jazeera correspondent Shireen Abu Akleh was killed during an Israeli military raid in the occupied West Bank.
Read More: The Problems With Israel’s Version of the Killing of Reporter Shireen Abu Akleh
Those relations further deteriorated following the outbreak of Israel’s war against Hamas on Oct. 7, when the militant group carried out a cross-border attack in southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and took 250 others hostage. Since then, the Israeli military campaign in Gaza has killed over 34,000 people, according to local health officials there, who don’t break figures down into civilians and combatants.
Israeli media largely has avoided the plight of those in the Gaza Strip, instead focusing on the Oct. 7 attack, the hostages held there and tales of Israeli military heroism.
Meanwhile in December, an Israeli strike killed an Al Jazeera cameraman as he reported on the war in southern Gaza. The channel’s bureau chief in Gaza, Wael Dahdouh, was wounded in the same attack. Dahdouh, a correspondent well-known to Palestinians during many wars, later evacuated Gaza but only after Israeli strikes killed his wife, three of his children and a grandson.
Read More: Al Jazeera Journalist Whose Family Was Killed in Airstrike Is Wounded in Gaza. Another Has Died
Al Jazeera is one of the few international media outlets to remain in Gaza throughout the war, broadcasting bloody scenes of airstrikes and overcrowded hospitals and accusing Israel of massacres.
Criticism of the channel is not new, however. The U.S. government singled out the broadcaster during America’s occupation of Iraq after its 2003 invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein and for airing videos of the late al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden.
Al Jazeera has been closed or blocked by other Mideast governments.
Most notably in 2013, Egyptian authorities raided a luxury hotel used by Al Jazeera as an operating base after the military takeover that followed mass protests against President Mohammed Morsi. Three Al Jazeera staff members received 10-year prison sentences, but were released in 2015 following widespread international criticism.
—Gambrell reported from Jerusalem. Associated Press writers Jack Jeffrey in Jerusalem and Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv contributed.
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Israel raids the offices of Al Jazeera after ordering the local offices of Qatar’s satellite news network to close Sunday. We talk to Professor Joseph Russomanno from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication journalism at Arizona State University. The latest round of Gaza cease-fire talks ended in Cairo after “in-depth and serious discussions,” the Hamas militant group said Sunday, reiterating key demands that Israel again rejected. Earlier signs of progress dimmed as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to resist international pressure to halt the war.
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Two down, one to go
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This weekend a top attorney for the Republican National Committee resigned over what Trump is trying to do to the RNC. This isn’t just a one off of course. Rick Wilson coined the phrase “Everything Trump Touches Dies” for a reason. Now Marc Elias, the election attorney who keeps defeating the RNC, is pointing out a remarkable pattern:
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In March the RNC hired three new lawyers. At the time I wrote: “If history is a guide, they will end up ethically and perhaps legally compromised.”
Let’s check in on them.
Christina Bobb – Indicted for election fraud.
Charlie Spies – Forced out by team Trump.
Bill McGinley – ?— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) May 5, 2024
. . .
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That right, two out of the three of them have already taken a fall. And let’s not forget that Christina Bobb isn’t just an RNC lawyer, she’s also a longtime Donald Trump lawyer. Now she’s set to go on criminal trial to determine whether she goes to prison.
I need your help: If each of you reading this can kick in $10 or $25, it’ll help keep Palmer Report firing on all cylinders at this crucial time in our nation’s history: Donate now
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Elise Stefanik files ethics complaint against special counsel Jack Smith DC News Now | Washington, DC
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