Azerbaijan-Iran: Divided Nation, Geopolitical Tensions https://gemini.google.com/share/e54b327ce18f The relationship between the Republic of Azerbaijan and “South Azerbaijan” (the Azerbaijani-populated northwestern provinces of Iran) is one of the most complex geopolitical fault lines in the Middle East and the Caucasus.1 As of early 2026, this dynamic is being reshaped by the definitive end of the Karabakh conflict, a burgeoning “Washington-brokered” peace between Baku and Yerevan, and the deepening shadow war between Israel and Iran. 1. Historical Context: A People Divided The division of the Azerbaijani people is not ancient; it is a 19th-century colonial legacy.2 The Treaties (1813 & 182

Azerbaijan-Iran: Divided Nation, Geopolitical Tensions  gemini.google.com/share/e54b…
The relationship between the Republic of Azerbaijan and “South Azerbaijan” (the Azerbaijani-populated northwestern provinces of Iran) is one of the most complex geopolitical fault lines in the Middle East and the Caucasus.1

As of early 2026, this dynamic is being reshaped by the definitive end of the Karabakh conflict, a burgeoning “Washington-brokered” peace between Baku and Yerevan, and the deepening shadow war between Israel and Iran.

1. Historical Context: A People Divided

The division of the Azerbaijani people is not ancient; it is a 19th-century colonial legacy.2

The Treaties (1813 & 1828):3 Following the Russo-Persian Wars, the Treaty of Gulistan and the Treaty of Turkmenchay established the Aras River as the border.4 The north was annexed by the Russian Empire (now the Republic of Azerbaijan), while the south remained under the Qajar dynasty of Persia.5+2

The Democratic Republic (1918):6 When the north declared independence in 1918, it adopted the name “Azerbaijan.”7 This was seen by Tehran as a provocative claim to its own northwestern provinces.+1
The 1945 National Government: After WWII, a Soviet-backed “Azerbaijan People’s Government” was briefly established in Tabriz (South Azerbaijan).8 It collapsed within a year after Soviet troops withdrew, leading to a period of intense suppression by the Iranian state.9
2. Intelligence Services: The Invisible Front

The Aras River is currently one of the most active intelligence theaters in the world.

ServicePrimary Activities & ObjectivesDTX (Azerbaijan)Countering Iranian “sleeper cells”; monitoring pro-Iranian religious extremists; dismantling networks like the Huseynyun (an IRGC-backed Shia militia intended for Azerbaijan).MOIS / IRGC (Iran)Recruiting ethnic Azerbaijanis in Georgia and Russia for covert ops; cyber espionage against Baku’s energy infrastructure; monitoring separatist sentiment in Tabriz.Mossad (Israel)Operates extensively within Azerbaijan. Iran frequently accuses Baku of allowing Israel to use its territory as a “forward base” for drone launches and signals intelligence against Iranian nuclear sites.

In 2023–2025, Azerbaijan’s State Security Service (DTX) conducted dozens of raids, arresting individuals accused of being “Iranian spies” who were allegedly photographing military sites and oil pipelines. Conversely, Iran has blamed “Baku-backed” agents for stirring unrest during domestic protests in Iranian Azerbaijan.
3. Perspectives for Reunification (“Whole Azerbaijan”)
While the “Whole Azerbaijan” (Bütöv Azərbaycan) ideology exists, official and practical perspectives differ:
The Rhetorical Shift: Since the 2020 Karabakh victory, President Ilham Aliyev has become more vocal, famously stating in late 2022 and again in 2025 that Azerbaijan cares for the rights of the “40 million Azerbaijanis living outside our borders.”10
The “South Azerbaijan” Independence Movement: Groups like GAMOH (Southern Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement) advocate for independence or autonomy.11 However, the movement is fragmented and faces heavy surveillance from Tehran.
The “Regime Stability” Paradox: Interestingly, some analysts suggest that a sudden collapse of Iran and a rush for reunification would actually threaten the Aliyev government. Integrating 20–30 million people with a different political history could destabilize the carefully managed secular-authoritarian balance in Baku.
4. New Realities of the Middle East (2025-2026)
Two major projects are redefining the region’s map:
A. The TRIPP Project (Zangezur Corridor)12
The “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) is the latest iteration of the Zangezur Corridor.13 It aims to connect mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan, through Armenian territory.14+1
Iran’s Red Line: Tehran views this as a “NATO/Turkic” corridor that would cut off Iran’s land border with Armenia and its direct link to Russia/Europe. In early 2026, Iran remains the primary military deterrent against this corridor’s forceful opening.

B. The Israel-Iran Proxy War

As Iran faces increasing internal economic strain and external pressure, Azerbaijan has solidified its role as Israel’s “strategic pier.”

2025 Hostilities: Following the brief but intense 12-day air war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, Iran’s suspicion of Baku reached an all-time high.15

The “Turkic Shield”: Azerbaijan is increasingly leaning into the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), seeking a collective security umbrella with Turkey to balance Iranian and Russian influence.

Summary Table: Geopolitical Alliances
FactorAzerbaijan’s AlignmentIran’s AlignmentPrimary PartnerTurkeyRussia / ChinaSecurity PartnerIsraelAxis of Resistance (Hezbollah, etc.)Transport VisionEast-West (Middle Corridor / TRIPP)North-South (INSTC)Religious PolicySecularismTheocratic Shiism
Would you like me to delve deeper into the specific military capabilities of the Azerbaijani and Iranian forces stationed along the Aras River border?

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jan 13, 2026